### 🧨 SMCI Earnings Setup: Big Miss Incoming? Put Flow Exploding 🚨
📆 **Earnings Date:** Aug 5, 2025 (After Market Close)
💣 **Sentiment:** **Moderate Bearish** — 72% conviction
💬 **Why?**: Weak margins, cash burn, heavy put activity, and bearish technicals.
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### 🔍 Quick Breakdown:
📉 **Fundamentals:**
* Profit margin only 5.34%
* Free cash flow: **–\$272M**
* Historical EPS beats? Just 50%
* Analyst consensus is turning **bearish**
🧾 **Options Flow:**
* Heavy \$58 & \$56 **Put Accumulation**
* Cautious positioning into earnings
* Skewed toward **defensive hedging**
📉 **Technicals:**
* Weak RSI (\~48), poor volume
* Price drifting with no conviction
* 🔑 Key Support: \$53.66
* 🔼 Resistance: \$60.00
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### 💼 Trade Setup: SMCI PUT ⚠️
* 📍 **Strike:** \$56.00
* 📆 **Expiry:** Aug 8, 2025
* 💵 **Entry Price:** \$2.23
* 🎯 **Profit Target:** \$6.69
* 🛑 **Stop Loss:** \$1.11
* 🧠 **Size:** 2% Portfolio
**Expected Move:** 10–15% ⚠️ (based on IV and past reactions)
**Exit Plan:** Take profits within 2 hours post-earnings to avoid IV crush!
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### 📈 TradingView Tags:
```
#SMCI #PutOptions #EarningsPlay #BearishSetup
#OptionsFlow #TechnicalAnalysis #SwingTrade #HighConviction
#NASDAQ #AIStocks #MarketVolatility #DarkPoolData
```
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### 💬 Hook for Comments:
> SMCI bulls better hope for a miracle… or this earnings could trigger a 15% flush. Are you hedged? 😬
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Free Signals Based on Latest AI models💰: QuantSignals.xyz
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.