8/5/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: 
SONO
Still tough to own > $10
- taking another look at some throw backs on my watchlist after some market carnage
- love the product and brand but remember fam company is not equal to stock
- what i struggle with most here is that their sales r flat this year and it's a one-big-quarter (holiday season) stock, and it's hard to a. have a read here into a consumer-sucks environment and b. cons. has a lot of other consumer names that on the mgn are producing better returns/ cash/ growth
- so back to growth, flat sales growth... let's look at N12M EPS... slightly more than 40c. let's use 40c given analysts are perma-bulls. what would i pay for a consumer flat sales, cash gen is mostly stock comp (not great)... at most? 12x? let's even say 15x to be generous (b/c
LULU is 16x and actually growing with solid cash gen - for comparison sake). pull 1x turn off the multiple. if that's the case, i'm at 40c x 15x = $6.
- i realize there's some R&D value here, they are net cash which defn helps!... so let's add a buck or let's do 2 bucks to augment the case. that's still a $8 stock. even if i rounded up another $2 i'm still at $10 at best and the stock is a. weak and b. $12, not $10.
- i've set a target at the nov '23 lows of ~$10. does it retest? idk. should it? idk. EPS this week on Wed Aug 7 will drive some ST moves to be sure.
- but given the opportunity set of options today, it's not very high up on my would-own list.
- just one perspective
- lmk if u see it differently
have a good week my friends (Tues onward that is!)
V
SONOStill tough to own > $10
- taking another look at some throw backs on my watchlist after some market carnage
- love the product and brand but remember fam company is not equal to stock
- what i struggle with most here is that their sales r flat this year and it's a one-big-quarter (holiday season) stock, and it's hard to a. have a read here into a consumer-sucks environment and b. cons. has a lot of other consumer names that on the mgn are producing better returns/ cash/ growth
- so back to growth, flat sales growth... let's look at N12M EPS... slightly more than 40c. let's use 40c given analysts are perma-bulls. what would i pay for a consumer flat sales, cash gen is mostly stock comp (not great)... at most? 12x? let's even say 15x to be generous (b/c
LULU is 16x and actually growing with solid cash gen - for comparison sake). pull 1x turn off the multiple. if that's the case, i'm at 40c x 15x = $6. - i realize there's some R&D value here, they are net cash which defn helps!... so let's add a buck or let's do 2 bucks to augment the case. that's still a $8 stock. even if i rounded up another $2 i'm still at $10 at best and the stock is a. weak and b. $12, not $10.
- i've set a target at the nov '23 lows of ~$10. does it retest? idk. should it? idk. EPS this week on Wed Aug 7 will drive some ST moves to be sure.
- but given the opportunity set of options today, it's not very high up on my would-own list.
- just one perspective
- lmk if u see it differently
have a good week my friends (Tues onward that is!)
V
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.