SPX Daily cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 69% SPX, 31% Cash. *The US Jobs Report came out this morning and 372,000 jobs were added in June which essentially recovers almost all of the jobs lost due to the pandemic (~23m), the unemployment rate remained at 3.6% for the fourth month in a row. A technical recession is defined by the combination of declining economic growth and employment [lasting several months]; so according to the textbook we are not yet in one because unemployment is still low and credit is still relatively healthy(?). How reliable the employment data is and how effective the models used to analyze them are arguable but as it stands now, the growing number of layoffs hasn't hit the job market yet. Even though they are both connected, markets seem to have shifted their focus from inflation to Q2 corporate earnings as a means of determining how much of an economic slowdown we are to expect (which would determine if we end 2022 with a federal funds rate above 3.5% - it is currently at 1.58%). Russia continues to avoid Western sanctions and boost their Ruble by fortifying trade routes with Brazil, China, India and South Africa (amongst other countries); Donetsk and Severodonetsk are the last two major Ukrainian strongholds defending against a total annexation of the Donbas region (Southeastern oblasts) - and Russia likely won't stop there; and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov reiterated today at the G20 Summit (before storming out) that increased sanctions are viewed as declarations of economic war.* Price is currently pushing higher at ~$3900 as it approaches the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at $3938 minor resistance. Volume remains Moderate and is currently on track to favor buyers for a fifth consecutive session if it can close today's session in the green. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3714, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending up slightly at 52 as it tests 52.68 resistance with a soft peak beginning to form. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending up at 98 as it approaches a test of max top where it can potentially coast in the "bullish autobahn zone" for some time. MACD remains bullish and is currently testing the uptrend line from March 2020 at -44 resistance, this is a critical resistance area. ADX continues trending down at 20 as Price pushes higher, this is mildly bullish at the moment; if ADX bounces as Price continues higher, this would be bullish. If Price is able to continue up here then it will likely face a bit more resistance at the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at $3938 minor resistance. However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest $3706 minor support before potentially heading lower to test $3508 support for the first time since November 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $3815.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.