📊 Weekly GEX Map (SPX)
This week’s GEX profile looks nearly identical to last week:
⚠️ What Happens If 5950 Fails?
In that case - welcome to negative gamma territory:
Result:
If we drop below 5950, we might see acceleration instead of stabilization — despite the positive GEX profile.
💡 Trade Idea of the Week – With Caution
If not for Wednesday's macro risk (Fed rate decision), I'd suggest a bullish diagonal spread toward 6100–6150:
But with FOMC looming, I'd only hold this trade until Thursday and close once the debit doubles or earlier.
🧨 Macro + Geo Risks
Fed is priced for “no move” → any surprise = volatility spike
Rising tensions with Iran → oil and futures could react violently
Recommendation: Avoid OIL this week, especially futures and naked strategies
🛡️ Prefer Downside Protection?
If you expect weakness on SPX weekly:
Consider a put debit spread with the short leg at 5950, where the second strongest Put Support sits.
This type of structure can offer up to 6:1 reward-to-risk, making it one of the most efficient bearish hedges for this week.
If you enjoyed the above breakdown, feel free to check out my previous weekly analyses or explore my tools as well.
Until next time – Trade what you see, not what you hope,
– Greg @ TanukiTrade
This week’s GEX profile looks nearly identical to last week:
- Positive bias above 6020 up to 6100
- But a sticky chop zone remains from 5975 to 6020
- Below 5950? That’s where things get interesting…
⚠️ What Happens If 5950 Fails?
In that case - welcome to negative gamma territory:
- Delta becomes unstable → fast, erratic moves
- Gamma loses influence → hedging effectiveness drops
- Dealer hedging lags → market makers chase, not lead
- Vega + theta distort readings → charm decay accelerates
Result:
- GEX zones lose clarity.
- Pinning breaks down.
- Reactions become nonlinear and emotional.
If we drop below 5950, we might see acceleration instead of stabilization — despite the positive GEX profile.
💡 Trade Idea of the Week – With Caution
If not for Wednesday's macro risk (Fed rate decision), I'd suggest a bullish diagonal spread toward 6100–6150:
- Limited downside
- Defined risk
- Covers the full squeeze zone
But with FOMC looming, I'd only hold this trade until Thursday and close once the debit doubles or earlier.
🧨 Macro + Geo Risks
Fed is priced for “no move” → any surprise = volatility spike
Rising tensions with Iran → oil and futures could react violently
Recommendation: Avoid OIL this week, especially futures and naked strategies
🛡️ Prefer Downside Protection?
If you expect weakness on SPX weekly:
Consider a put debit spread with the short leg at 5950, where the second strongest Put Support sits.
This type of structure can offer up to 6:1 reward-to-risk, making it one of the most efficient bearish hedges for this week.
If you enjoyed the above breakdown, feel free to check out my previous weekly analyses or explore my tools as well.
Until next time – Trade what you see, not what you hope,
– Greg @ TanukiTrade
Trade active
Just like last week: - 6050 tested
- 6050 failed
- now we are going to the transition zone and to the negative GEX territory
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Boost up your charts with Options PRO!
REAL Options metrics for over 190+ liquid US symbols:
✔ 𝗔𝘂𝘁𝗼-𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗚𝗘𝗫 𝗹𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹𝘀
✔ IVRank ✔ CALL/PUT skew ✔ Volatility Skew ✔ Delta curves
👉 7-day TRIAL 🌐 TanukiTrade.com
REAL Options metrics for over 190+ liquid US symbols:
✔ 𝗔𝘂𝘁𝗼-𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗚𝗘𝗫 𝗹𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹𝘀
✔ IVRank ✔ CALL/PUT skew ✔ Volatility Skew ✔ Delta curves
👉 7-day TRIAL 🌐 TanukiTrade.com
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.