Good Afternoon!
This week, I want to talk about the
SPX and its weekly potential for how I read historical volatility to weight it then to implied volatility -- this creates my custom trading ranges.
Implied ranges for this week are calculated at 4 DTE using my strength of IV method. You can find out more how I do this over at my highlights page on 'X' - Find me @askHVtobidIV
We are entering a short week, with IV currently in the 89th percentile for the year (18.31%) and resonating between bi-weekly (19.36%) and monthly (15.13%) historical values. Quarterly volatility trends (31.79%) have risen more than 10% this year alone due to macro concerns and increased news from tariff uncertainties. This is creating a volatile environment that, in turn, only increases our trading ranges. Something I personally like.
Near-term trends are above the currently high IV environment, suggesting further expansion. This provides premium value on what is happening to what is projected to happen and a “strength of IV” of >100% indicating rising volatility, slowly towards quarterly means, while resonating around monthly trends.
If price action drives downwards, our gap from May 16th could fill around $5,692.56 with confluence of HV21 trends at $5,710.91.
Conversely, I can see HV10 ranges with rising pricing action and good macro news with EU tariffs breaking $5,971.33—Expanding to the price of $5,995.95 with continuing expansion and regression towards means.
Come back next weekend as I will review the chart to see how we developed!
For those interested in volatility analysis and the application of weighted HV ranges to IV, I encourage you to BOOST and share this post, leave a comment, or follow me to join me on this journey.
This week, I want to talk about the
SPX and its weekly potential for how I read historical volatility to weight it then to implied volatility -- this creates my custom trading ranges. Implied ranges for this week are calculated at 4 DTE using my strength of IV method. You can find out more how I do this over at my highlights page on 'X' - Find me @askHVtobidIV
We are entering a short week, with IV currently in the 89th percentile for the year (18.31%) and resonating between bi-weekly (19.36%) and monthly (15.13%) historical values. Quarterly volatility trends (31.79%) have risen more than 10% this year alone due to macro concerns and increased news from tariff uncertainties. This is creating a volatile environment that, in turn, only increases our trading ranges. Something I personally like.
Near-term trends are above the currently high IV environment, suggesting further expansion. This provides premium value on what is happening to what is projected to happen and a “strength of IV” of >100% indicating rising volatility, slowly towards quarterly means, while resonating around monthly trends.
If price action drives downwards, our gap from May 16th could fill around $5,692.56 with confluence of HV21 trends at $5,710.91.
Conversely, I can see HV10 ranges with rising pricing action and good macro news with EU tariffs breaking $5,971.33—Expanding to the price of $5,995.95 with continuing expansion and regression towards means.
Come back next weekend as I will review the chart to see how we developed!
For those interested in volatility analysis and the application of weighted HV ranges to IV, I encourage you to BOOST and share this post, leave a comment, or follow me to join me on this journey.
Trade active
IV melted today -2.76% as SPX gapped up into the week strong passing monthly trending volatility values.Trade closed manually
WHAT A WEEK!Crazy news with gap ups and controlled consolidation in my mind -- The strength into the week had
SPX reaching HV10 values, expanding outside of IV, then consolidating back down to monthly values..in the end lowering IV to close the week out as it chases trending bi-weekly values down.IV has closed the weed 62% IVp and 15.25% respectfully.
I will see you Sunday for my volatility discussion, till then enjoy your weekend!
Dive deeper into the world of volatility with me — Post a comment, ask a question, and BOOST the post if you’d like.
Make sure you 'Grab my Chart' weekly to pull my data onto your screen!
Find me over on the 'X' platform:
@askHVtobidIV
Make sure you 'Grab my Chart' weekly to pull my data onto your screen!
Find me over on the 'X' platform:
@askHVtobidIV
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Dive deeper into the world of volatility with me — Post a comment, ask a question, and BOOST the post if you’d like.
Make sure you 'Grab my Chart' weekly to pull my data onto your screen!
Find me over on the 'X' platform:
@askHVtobidIV
Make sure you 'Grab my Chart' weekly to pull my data onto your screen!
Find me over on the 'X' platform:
@askHVtobidIV
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.