🔥 The Low Is In: Why the S&P 500 Just Confirmed a Major Bullish Reversal 🔥
The market just gave us a gift.
After weeks of drifting lower and sentiment turning cautious, the S&P 500 has touched — and bounced — off a critical rising trendline for the third time since May 2025. That third touch isn't just a technical coincidence… it's often the launchpad for a new impulsive leg higher.
📈 The Power of the 3rd Touch: Trendline Validation Complete
Look at the chart. This isn’t guesswork. Since May, the S&P 500 has been respecting a well-defined ascending trendline, one that connects multiple higher lows during this bull run.
The first touch was the May liftoff after the April consolidation.
The second came in June — a clean retest and bounce.
Now, as of early August, the third touch has held once again, exactly where the bulls needed it most.
This isn’t a random line on a chart. This is institutional flow stepping in to defend structure.
And when a rising trendline holds for a third time after a strong uptrend? That’s a classic continuation signal.
📉 RSI Washout + Structural Support = Perfect Storm for a Bottom
The RSI printed a dramatic dip to ~32, a level that screams “oversold” on the 4-hour timeframe. But notice the context — it happened right at structural support.
This is not weakness. This is accumulation.
Big players shake out weak hands on low timeframes… right before they send it.
🧠 Sentiment Is Offside… Again
Let’s not forget: this retrace came after a huge run-up since March. People expected a deeper correction. Bears started getting loud again.
That’s how bull markets trap you — by convincing you it’s over right before the next leg higher.
And with macro tailwinds (liquidity expansion, fiscal spend, tariff rollbacks), earnings season beats, and global capital rotation into U.S. equities, this setup is ripe for a violent upside squeeze.
🚀 8,700 in Sight: My End-of-Year Price Target Is Very Much in Play
Today’s close around 6,220 means the S&P 500 would need to rally ~40% to hit my target of 8,700 by year-end.
Sounds crazy? Not if you’ve seen what happens during parabolic melt-ups.
This isn’t just hope:
📊 Strong breadth under the surface
🏛️ Dovish policy pivot now expected in Q4
💸 Retail and institutional capital both re-engaging
📉 Bond yields are starting to roll over, supporting equity valuations
When bull markets enter their euphoria phase, they don’t stop at “reasonable” targets. They blast through them.
💡 The Setup Is Textbook — Now It’s About Execution
✅ Trendline defended
✅ RSI reset
✅ Sentiment shaken out
✅ Structure intact
The technicals just aligned with the macro. The low is in — and the runway to 8,700 is wide open.
Strap in. Q4 could be one for the history books.
The market just gave us a gift.
After weeks of drifting lower and sentiment turning cautious, the S&P 500 has touched — and bounced — off a critical rising trendline for the third time since May 2025. That third touch isn't just a technical coincidence… it's often the launchpad for a new impulsive leg higher.
📈 The Power of the 3rd Touch: Trendline Validation Complete
Look at the chart. This isn’t guesswork. Since May, the S&P 500 has been respecting a well-defined ascending trendline, one that connects multiple higher lows during this bull run.
The first touch was the May liftoff after the April consolidation.
The second came in June — a clean retest and bounce.
Now, as of early August, the third touch has held once again, exactly where the bulls needed it most.
This isn’t a random line on a chart. This is institutional flow stepping in to defend structure.
And when a rising trendline holds for a third time after a strong uptrend? That’s a classic continuation signal.
📉 RSI Washout + Structural Support = Perfect Storm for a Bottom
The RSI printed a dramatic dip to ~32, a level that screams “oversold” on the 4-hour timeframe. But notice the context — it happened right at structural support.
This is not weakness. This is accumulation.
Big players shake out weak hands on low timeframes… right before they send it.
🧠 Sentiment Is Offside… Again
Let’s not forget: this retrace came after a huge run-up since March. People expected a deeper correction. Bears started getting loud again.
That’s how bull markets trap you — by convincing you it’s over right before the next leg higher.
And with macro tailwinds (liquidity expansion, fiscal spend, tariff rollbacks), earnings season beats, and global capital rotation into U.S. equities, this setup is ripe for a violent upside squeeze.
🚀 8,700 in Sight: My End-of-Year Price Target Is Very Much in Play
Today’s close around 6,220 means the S&P 500 would need to rally ~40% to hit my target of 8,700 by year-end.
Sounds crazy? Not if you’ve seen what happens during parabolic melt-ups.
This isn’t just hope:
📊 Strong breadth under the surface
🏛️ Dovish policy pivot now expected in Q4
💸 Retail and institutional capital both re-engaging
📉 Bond yields are starting to roll over, supporting equity valuations
When bull markets enter their euphoria phase, they don’t stop at “reasonable” targets. They blast through them.
💡 The Setup Is Textbook — Now It’s About Execution
✅ Trendline defended
✅ RSI reset
✅ Sentiment shaken out
✅ Structure intact
The technicals just aligned with the macro. The low is in — and the runway to 8,700 is wide open.
Strap in. Q4 could be one for the history books.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.