S&P 500 Index

S&P500 Will it share the same fate as the QE ending of 2015?

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On this analysis I compare the S&P500 index' price action from the post March 2020 crash against the period of January 2013 - December 2015. The reason is the one thing those two have in common: the end of Quantitative Easing (QE) eras.

As the chart shows, the two sequences has been fairly similar as they started by posting strong growth on the basis of aggressive QE (in the past to recover from the subprime crisis and in 2020 to recover from the COVID pandemic). Recently SPX has started to become more volatile and the reason is the Fed starting the taper program and announcing multiple rate hikes in 2022.

We saw the same market reaction from October 2014 onwards after the Fed concluded its QE at the time and until the first interest rate hike (since 2008) in December 2015, the market entered a transition phase of very high volatility. Do you think history will repeat itself and we'll see or have already entered a new long-term volatile phase?




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