#SPX: Potential forecast if we hold support here

confirmed a bullish signal today, after it was evident selling had been absorbed systematically by long term investors since September 4th until today. This buying puts a floor on the market here, and potentially offers a solid support level if retested once prices move higher, if they do hold here for a couple weeks.

A new weekly signal can trigger by the week starting Sep 28th, and we have many short term charts in certain tech stocks showing bearish signals, while a lot of other stocks -energy, travel, hotels, to name a few- have bullish signals, so a sideways index here would not be too crazy.
Once we confirm a new bullish signal we could project a rally over 3684, at least, provided we get bullish confirmation next.

I'm holding both bullish and bearish positions in individual stocks, as well as some insurance using derivatives as well, but should we get a bullish swing once again, the bullish signals will far outweigh any potential loss I might have to deal with from bearish setups. That's the beauty of stock picking, many times you can find good trades that might not correlate the index at all times, or even afford the luxury of trading both long and short positions in different stocks.
Stimulus talks need to progress for the rally to continue, so I will be keeping an eye on those developments going forward.

Best of luck!

Ivan Labrie.

Note

Bouncing, this area should be support before we get the next trending move. (see the light green shaded area).
If we get a strong break of this zone, then support is breaking and we are in fact seeing the start of a big decline. This is why it is wise to trade both long and short ideas, and perhaps use VIXY options as low cost insurance.

Note

twitter.com/Spus/status/1307031483882840066?s=20

Keep in mind this, aligns with my idea of sideways for one more week before rallying. Today's options expiration caused massive gyrations in different directions in different stocks. Indices were dragged down due to tech sliding but bounced into the close after testing the lower boundary of the support area. If we hold and grind higher sideways, we will fulfill his forecast over time.

Trade closed manually

It looks like support broke, currencies are in the move as well, and rising. The insurance positions I had will start to pay off if this was a real top, which it could have been. The prospect of a 2nd wave, stimulus talks facing tension due to Bader's death triggering Trump's selection of a new supreme justice...to name a few, might be derailing the risk on move we had until now.

Trade active

Back inside the support zone means the market will test the 3392-3482 area next. If above it might rally as per my original idea here.

Note

If we are to rally from here, we might pull off a 20% off the low move, which would have everyone on Earth feeling euphoric, as it would be a 'bull market rally' from the recent low, and also up 20% for the year.

Note

Signal fully confirmed.

Note

IvanLabrie

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by IvanLabrie

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IvanLabrie

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