S&P 500 Index
Long

S&P 500 (SPX500USD) – Liquidity Sweep or Continuation? | Probabi

97
🕒 1H Chart | Smart Money Concepts | Volume | ORB Framework

We are currently trading around 5,888, after a recovery from the equilibrium zone near 5,760–5,770, which served as a strong reaction point. Here's how we at WaverVanir International LLC are assessing probability-based outcomes using our DSS and institutional concepts:

🔍 Key Levels & Observations:
🟥 Premium Supply Zone:

5,925–5,945 shows signs of multiple CHoCHs (Change of Character), BOS (Break of Structure), and prior liquidity grabs.

This zone is now a potential trap for late buyers.

Prob. of rejection: ~70% based on historical confluence.

🟦 Discount Demand Zone:

5,742–5,770 is our equilibrium/discount reaccumulation zone with a high-probability reaction area.

Swept liquidity clean on May 24–27 with volume spike confirmation.

Prob. of support: ~75% short-term if price retraces with exhaustion.

📈 Trade Ideas (Probability-Weighted):
Short Setup (Reactive)

Entry: 5,928–5,940 (inside premium)

Stop Loss: Above 5,950 (above weak high)

Target 1: 5,860

Target 2: 5,785–5,765 (equilibrium zone)

Confidence: 65–70%

Long Setup (Reversion Play)

Entry: 5,765–5,745 (bottom of imbalance)

Stop Loss: Below 5,729

Target 1: 5,859

Target 2: 5,910–5,920

Confidence: 70% if sweep occurs with declining vol.

🔄 ORB Confluence:
Opening Range Breakout (0930–0945) shows recent buy-side aggression, but this move is suspect unless volume continues climbing. A fade below 5,859 without impulsive volume confirms seller re-entry.
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