Short

Updated

Second Biggest Short Play of the Year on ES

Here it is ladies & gentlemen.

The second biggest short play of the year is about to commence.

We have a H&S on the daily with price action neatly contained within a bearish rising wedge (pink) since MAY 13 overnight session (the bottom 2HR chart).

The bearish rising wedge termination appears to coincide with the right shoulder of the H&S pattern. This puts ES price around 2870 to 2880 area.

2880 was a very important price level two weeks ago.

We have Fed Chair Jerome Powell's interview with 60 Minutes on CBS airing on 7 pm MAY 17, or this Sunday night.

The smart money has finished unloading their stocks onto the public as proven by the explosion in new accounts with TD Ameritrade and Robinhood since the corona virus depression began. The average joe has been suckered into the market and unloaded on.

Check out this tweet - twitter.com/MidwestHedgie/status/1260914149565005827 - this is proof of the huge increase in DART (Daily Average Revenue Trades) by retail folk.

Smart money will now commence the next leg down and all the blame will be laid at the feet of Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve for this interview airing Sunday night.

A daily view of the SPY paints the same bearish picture.

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ES daily, another view.
All I see is a VERY bearish story.

Bear flag break, pullback to bear flag support break that will result in rejection.

Trade active

2 MES at 2860, taking heat. Still confident but I should have been more patient.

Trade closed manually

Well, I tilted to 30 MES short to 2881, tapered off to 20, had a chance to get out for a profit, didn't.

Then covered for a $200 loss right before the dump started cause I couldn't take any more heat. The plan was to double down all night to get a good price, then taper some off to build a profit cushion and then sit on the remaining position rest of the week. I didn't expect so many vertical green pumps - that's evidence right there that they are taking this market lower.

Best of luck to anyone short positioned, I still think the TA is right but I just ruined my mental capital.

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Update 2hr chart.

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Well, TA is dead to me now.

Do you think its unusual that the biggest overnight pump on some BS vaccine working news happens right about as a huge sell opportunity shows up?

I think TA doesn't work now that the Fed has a stake in the markets - they will use bears TA setups to do the exact opposite.

All we have is this pennant resistance, then its back to the bear flag resistance.

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I am positioning to short on this bear flag pullback.

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Update, getting close. Not ES cause its delayed, but you get the idea.

Im short 4 MES @ 2945.50

Trade active

SHORT 4 MES 2945.50

Trade closed manually

I got out, can't take another bull pump. Down $82 on the day - not bad, considering all I did was short the fed overnight and the vaccine news fluff.

Looking to rebuild the short on (3) in this chart...

4HR

1HR

Trade closed manually

I added more shorts on that 66 push, it was a clear intraday bearflag retest & rejection.

Cleared +$300 - in the worlds of Elon Musk, "Don't doubt your vibe"

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Look at this, it's down the damn tick! I did not move or curve fit those lines, you can see from the previous charts I've been posting throught the day.

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Just saw this blue resistance line. Some sort of combo of bear flag pullback again lining up with blue resistance line and 3000 psychological number before Fed FOMC on Wednesday is probably a great short to take in terms of risk to reward.

To refine the entry, look for any hourly upper bollinger band pierces on both the 2 and 3 sigma. Use the free [JR]MBHB_EBO technical indicator so that it automatically identifies these 2 and 3 sigma upper bollinger band breaches for you.

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We are holding the throwback to pennant breakout well, bulls will likely drive it higher, hoping to short there.

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2990 is a great area to take a short.

Going to wait until they pop us there to start building the position.

Trade active

I opened up 2 x SPY JUN 290/280 BEAR PUT Debit Spread for $2.50. Pays out 3:1 and breaks even at 287.48.

I opened up 20 × QQQ 29MAY 200 PUT.

I have existing 2 × VIX JUN16 50 CALL that have been paid for by the market by 3 I sold last week.

Planning to leg in some more tomorrow prior to FOMC, see how that goes.

Trade closed manually

That was wild - I wanted 2960 short on the rising wedge resistance but market top ticked at 58.75. Then it dumped hard on the vaccine news, I shorted the pop at 61.8 retracement, it overthrew a bit but I maneuvered into a 54 short position and rode it down 161.8% retracement before I got out.

i.imgur.com/u5DwzHQ.png

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Updated ES chart overnight. 2993 area approximately.

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Trade active

Had to rebuild my short position since they retraced the entire drop overnight somehow.

I'm in short from 38, and here is how I think the day will go. Mostly bearish thesis.

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Update ladies & gents.

ES Weekly

Weekly - watch that red dotted line

4HR Bull Flag off 11APR

Look how the price has been riding closer to the support. The fact that we retraced the entire 1% drop on FRIDAY MAY 22 OVERNIGHT SESSION is complete manipulation mark up of prices.

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Intraday 15 Session

They just BRRRRRRRRRRed their way thru this bull flag.

Fade it to get into position, use the 15 min upper bollinger band exhaustion.

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