Updated

Spy

Last week here before "Sell and go away may".

A few possibilities here I'll go over each one

Here's the bullish setup for this week.

This We tag 418.50 by breaking out of this small purple channel that we traded in thursday and friday

Bearish setup here.

We drop below 409.50 , break support and tag 406 before bouncing to retest wedge and then the real drop begans

And here's the neutral or cautious setup that I like
We fell outside this smaller wedge and have
Traded in this smaller purple channel.
We could start Monday with a pullback
To support around 409.80, then bounce and higher to close gap at 414. After that we'll have to see

Vix close on the 1hour chart supports a pullback tomorrow

Vix on the is accumulating here for a possible breakout around Friday to 20.00

Whatever happens this week I think the max high is 418. Next week is the FED and ECB interest rate decision and the start of sell in May and go away. If you don't want to deal with the fawkery, sit this week out.

Note

Es and NQ going overbought.
Amzn, Google, Nflx are what's pushing this higher..
I wouldn't chase the calls

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Qqq 2 hour chart..

At resistance here

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XLE is breaking out.. Energy is keeping the dow up

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Sure tech is weak but it will be hard for the dow and spy to go down with Health and energy up.. Best case tech offsets gains in health and energy which means we chop ..

Be weary if you are ODTE or trading
Short dated contracts

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I covered on FCX puts earlier for 180%.

Covered on Qqq puts, I took a 7% loss on mostly from premium burn.

I'm in cash , think today may be a chop fest..

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Vix headded back to support again at 16.80 after the false Breakout.. I'll be watching for a market reaction after it hits support

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I'm watching aapl right now.. it's showing a H&S if it breaks 164.. I'll now they are sincere in the drop on qqq if apple breaks 164. Otherwise it's just a pullback

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Watch for the bounce on QQQ around 313.. I don't think they'll break that before big tech earnings

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Nq 2hour chart

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Once NQ hit support I'm buying Calls.. 1 hour candle completely outside its Bbands
. Start placing stops on your calls

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I meant stops on your puts

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Not time for calls, QQQ Bounced but NQ didnt.. which means QQQ is a dead cat ..

I'll let you know when I buy

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You see IXIC (nasdaq)?
They are going to close that gap at 11,929
That's when you buy.. similar chart as NQ

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Nice dead cat ... vix near support again , Apple at 165.30 resistance

Qqq has resistance at 316.00- 316.30

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Not swinging anything here...

NQ near resistance again, I don't think they'll break it overnight, If they do breakout they'll do it on big tech earnings..
No matter the open tomorrow, I think qqq heads back to 313 gap close. Probably after consumer Confidence at 10a.m EST

Vix at support

Most of the stocks reporting premarket are dow stocks
The dow is finishing inside a pennant

If it breaks up or down the move will be big..

Let's see what happens

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Spy 2hour chart

30min chart

Over 413 and we head to 416 minimum.
Support is at 411.30

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📣 playing out on the ES...
I'd like to see 1 more pullback to 4130-4135
Then go Long over yellow trendline ..

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This is why I said yesterday was a dead cat

Waiting on QQQ 313.00 gap close to buy calls
Should close it soon..
316c
5/2
312.00 Stop loss

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Nq and ES oversold 1 hour bollingerband and money flow.. they'll buy this up soon...
313 support qqq 409 for spy

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I'm in Calls QQQ
312.00 stop

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Qqq

There's a falling here formed but the bigger pictures a possible double top if things go sour for big tech earnings..

If you swing , no Matter which side understand the risk

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Qqq 314.62 is qqq 21ema.. for you scalpers who are just in it for a good time

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Vix cci 1 hour overbought
Probably pulling back support

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Games.. they may drag this to spy 408.50 gap close..

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Stopped out

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Has a gap at 408 to close..
Apple is still holding 164

Spy broke beneath wedge support.
We could bounce tomorrow and retest wedge support before heading lower

Or
We gap down tomorrow and test 406 break lower and go 403 gap

Honestly tech sector, dow jones transport look like shyt..

I wouldn't touch it unless QQQ reclaimed 313...

If you buy here you buy because things are oversold.

Vix still way overbought My technicals tell me the vix pulls back tomorrow

Note

405 spy
310 qqq
Next support

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They are going to push that vix up to 20.0p again..
I'll catch the rally tomorrow .. nothing but knives today

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Nothing but knives until vix
Hits 20.00

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Remember that aapl setup? It keeps holding 164.00
I'll take
167.50c
4/28
Lotto
Small position

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NQ 1hour RSI at 15.. lol.. they will pump this hard either at the open tomorrow or after it

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Hilarious.. squeezed everyone out of their calls to pump it..
I'm holding aapl calls

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Got their head today.. no push to 412 by Friday to top off the shoulder

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NQ needs to breakover 13k..

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Qqq daily chart using lines
Funny place they chose to bounce it. Nice squeeze coming

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Vix showing a double top here.. I'd like to see a break below 18.30 here..

Nq and es still oversold on 2 hour the same as yesterday...

I think we rally today but I will say I feel the rally will be more tech based..

Msft is opening up at resistance and gap close at 297... I wouldn't chase calls there and yes if msft pulls back the market will too but they could pop Google and aapl to balance it off

IWM , health, financials, energy are lagging.

Note

Games..
I'm in Google
106c
5/5

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Selective bullshit, some stocks will perform better than others which means you have to be a good picker today... make no mistake , this pop is the last rally before the real sell

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Still holding aapl (Small position)

The reason I chose Google because of the bounce off 103 fib

Looking for Tesla to bounce at 155.00
There's a 1 hour bear channel on tsla but bullish divergence on RSI

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Iwm has a gap to close at 172... I'm not bullish but it should dead cat bounce there

Health care XLV is getting smacked.. but that's what you want to see if you're in tech, health is defense

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Games..
XLV us the biggest drag on spy.
.has a gap at 130.85 to close, then we'll see.

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Covered 75% of googl calls..
Letting the rest ride for 108 gap close ..
Tesla needs to bounce at 155 or things get nasty for spy

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Covered on all googl and aapl..
Will look to renenter if market bounces

Next support on spy is 405.09...

Below that 403.60 gap close

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Dow has about 60 more points down then it bounces with health care then the market should stabilize unless tech sells but tech is holding

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Spy 15min chart.. u see the bounce off 405.09 .. wish I would've bought that..
Needs to breakabove that downtrend though

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I think any long entry should wait for 407.50 or buy as close to 405 .00 as you can with a 404.50 stop loss..
.

I'll be back on later ✌

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Spy Never retested that 405.

Qqq is showing a falling wedge here..
Current price is 314.30 at trendline resistance and 21ema resistance.. over 314.75 and I'm in Calls for 316 gap close

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Spy over 407.50 , next stop 409
Vix is selling like it should..
Cut the aapl calls to soon but I got out of Google at the top..

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Googl and Meta make majority of their money off advertising.. if meta beats then googl will pop and finally close that 108-110 gap .. If you're thinking of playing meta whether bullish or bearish you could trade Google. Less iv crush
. I'm not an advisor lol

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Nq also broke from under 13k.

And outside its wedge.
Next stop 13075
Stop loss 12980

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Dow jones transportation has dropped almost 7% in 2 days. Daily Candle outside its bollingerband ... I expect a dead cat bounce soon (Maybe tomorrow)
But next week things will get nasty

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Risky trade here..
Back in Googl
108c
5/5
.65
102.50
Stop loss

Risky because if meta tanks googl might too

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Possible double bottom forming on the 1hour here on spy .

Gold line is the 200sma

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410c
5/4
Spy
404.50 stop loss

I'm in

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Spy fighting on that 200sma 1hour..
Need a bounce here on this candle

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Scum bags.. stop loss hunting..

Like I said earlier.. dow jones needed to touch this line here at 33,322 to complete its head. Now time to form the shoulder like spy

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Vix at resistance again..

Playing games here
Es bounced off 4073

I still see a major to possibly close gap at 412 before we test 400 but spy needs to close above 405.

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The 1 hour RSI on DJT is at 15, Daily Candle outside its bollingerband.

Technicals say DJT and small caps rally tomorrow, which means spy probably pops too. XLV and XLF both bounced off some tough support.

Still every large sector is beneath is 21ema now which means things are pretty bearish, so If you're playing calls , you're playing the oversold .

ContraryTrader

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ContraryTrader

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