🧠 Technical Analysis (TA) – SPY Outlook
SPY is approaching a critical inflection zone near $638–$640, navigating through an ascending channel with compression in price action. This aligns with major Gamma Walls, offering both opportunity and risk. Here's the Monday breakdown using 1H, 15M, and GEX overlays:
🔍 Market Structure:
* 1H Chart shows a clean uptrend, forming a base around $637.50.
* 15M Chart reveals a consolidation zone after a Break of Structure (BOS), with a potential CHoCH below $636.65.
* Price is currently ranging inside a small supply zone and below an upper channel boundary.
🧲 GEX + Options Sentiment:
* GEX Extreme Gamma Resistance: $640–642 (strong CALL walls, potential reversal).
* PUT Wall Clusters: $634, $632, $628 (support zones on pullbacks).
* IVR: 12.4 – near low volatility.
* Put/Call $ Ratio: 51.4% Puts = Mild Bearish lean.
* NETGEX highest positive at $640 = Gamma magnet + potential resistance.
📌 Key Zones:
* Support: 636.15 → 634.42 → 633.00
* Resistance: 638.70 → 640.00 → 642.00
🟢 Bullish Scenario:
* If SPY reclaims 638.70 and breaks above channel top, watch for momentum toward 640–642, then reassess.
* 📥 Entry: 638.80+
* 🎯 Target: 640.40 → 641.80
* ⛔️ Stop: Below 636.65
🔴 Bearish Scenario:
* Failure to hold above 637.50 and break of CHoCH at 636.65 could invite pullback to 634.42 or even 632.90.
* 📥 Entry: Break & retest below 636.65
* 🎯 Target: 634.42 → 633.00
* ⛔️ Stop: Above 638.00
🔁 Scalping Levels (15M):
* Watch pink box consolidation zone (637.2–637.6) for breakout or rejection.
* Aggressive short scalp if early rejection from 638 near open.
🎯 Actionable Plan:
* Opening Above 638.70 = Lean CALLs, trail tight.
* Rejection at 638–638.5 = Look for PUTs back to 636.5/634.
* Clean break of 636.65 = Short bias opens for larger retrace.
* Gamma Squeeze possible only if > 640 holds and IV rises.
🧠 Thoughts:
SPY is coiling under macro resistance while IV remains low. Options market isn't leaning heavily bearish, but that could change if we slip below 636.65. Be mindful of the Gamma walls acting as magnets or reversion zones. This is a risk-defined week, so size down and react—not predict.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and trade with proper risk management.
SPY is approaching a critical inflection zone near $638–$640, navigating through an ascending channel with compression in price action. This aligns with major Gamma Walls, offering both opportunity and risk. Here's the Monday breakdown using 1H, 15M, and GEX overlays:
🔍 Market Structure:
* 1H Chart shows a clean uptrend, forming a base around $637.50.
* 15M Chart reveals a consolidation zone after a Break of Structure (BOS), with a potential CHoCH below $636.65.
* Price is currently ranging inside a small supply zone and below an upper channel boundary.
🧲 GEX + Options Sentiment:
* GEX Extreme Gamma Resistance: $640–642 (strong CALL walls, potential reversal).
* PUT Wall Clusters: $634, $632, $628 (support zones on pullbacks).
* IVR: 12.4 – near low volatility.
* Put/Call $ Ratio: 51.4% Puts = Mild Bearish lean.
* NETGEX highest positive at $640 = Gamma magnet + potential resistance.
📌 Key Zones:
* Support: 636.15 → 634.42 → 633.00
* Resistance: 638.70 → 640.00 → 642.00
🟢 Bullish Scenario:
* If SPY reclaims 638.70 and breaks above channel top, watch for momentum toward 640–642, then reassess.
* 📥 Entry: 638.80+
* 🎯 Target: 640.40 → 641.80
* ⛔️ Stop: Below 636.65
🔴 Bearish Scenario:
* Failure to hold above 637.50 and break of CHoCH at 636.65 could invite pullback to 634.42 or even 632.90.
* 📥 Entry: Break & retest below 636.65
* 🎯 Target: 634.42 → 633.00
* ⛔️ Stop: Above 638.00
🔁 Scalping Levels (15M):
* Watch pink box consolidation zone (637.2–637.6) for breakout or rejection.
* Aggressive short scalp if early rejection from 638 near open.
🎯 Actionable Plan:
* Opening Above 638.70 = Lean CALLs, trail tight.
* Rejection at 638–638.5 = Look for PUTs back to 636.5/634.
* Clean break of 636.65 = Short bias opens for larger retrace.
* Gamma Squeeze possible only if > 640 holds and IV rises.
🧠 Thoughts:
SPY is coiling under macro resistance while IV remains low. Options market isn't leaning heavily bearish, but that could change if we slip below 636.65. Be mindful of the Gamma walls acting as magnets or reversion zones. This is a risk-defined week, so size down and react—not predict.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and trade with proper risk management.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.