Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for August 5, 2025

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🔮 Nightly SPY / SPX Scenarios for August 5, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market‑Moving News 🌍

🔹 PBOC Moves Prompt FX Backlash
On August 5, 2019, China’s central bank allowed the yuan to depreciate over 2% to its lowest level since 2008. That same day, the U.S. Treasury officially designated China as a currency manipulator, citing the PBOC’s moves as retaliation for recent U.S. tariff actions. In response, China ordered state-owned enterprises to suspend purchases of U.S. agricultural goods—a significant blow to U.S. exporters.

🔹 EU Suspends Counter-Tariffs for Six Months
Following a negotiated framework with the U.S., the European Union suspended retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods for six months. The move aims to de-escalate trade tensions while joint discussions continue.

🔹 Citi Raises Gold Price Outlook to $3,500/oz
Citi revised its short-term trading range for gold to $3,300–$3,600 per ounce, based on weakening U.S. labor data, rising inflation pressure from tariffs, and growing demand for safe-haven assets. Spot gold traded around $3,356 oz on Monday.

📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊
📅 Tuesday, August 5:

8:30 AM ET – U.S. Trade Balance (June)
Expected to improve modestly to –$67.6 billion (from –$71.5B), reflecting tariff-influenced shifts in import/export volumes.

9:45 AM ET – S&P Global U.S. Final Services PMI & ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (July)
Key indicators of service-sector strength. Readings above 50 suggest expansion; below 50, contraction. Flash estimates forecast moderated growth in activity.

⚠️ Disclaimer:
This content is for educational and informational use only—not financial advice. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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