S&P 500 Outperformance vs. Transportation–Industrial Benchmark

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SPY SPX DJT DJI


The current level of the SPY/(DJT/DJI) ratio reflects one of the most extreme divergences in decades, with the S&P 500 outperforming transportation and industrial benchmarks by a margin far exceeding prior cycle peaks. This kind of vertical move has historically proven unsustainable, as seen in 2000 and 2021, when similar surges were followed by significant mean reversion. The disparity suggests that market gains are being driven disproportionately by a narrow group of large-cap equities rather than broad-based economic strength. Unless transportation and industrial sectors begin to catch up, history points toward an eventual pullback in the S&P 500 as this imbalance corrects.

Godspeed, the bubble is here. Remember what it's like.

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