Looking for a pullback here to start the week.
Closes pullback target is 412.50 -413.00
I don't think they'll break below that yellow trendline support without a Catalyst and the nearest Catalyst is Tuesday Jolts job opening, which is 30min after market opens.
The biggest reason for the pullback is the overbought conditions in what lead to the market rally (tech). You have stocks like MSFT and Meta 2 days outside their bollingerband..
Qqq 1hour money flow is at 90 😆. CCI also overbought.
Yes big tech will lead to the pullback here early in the week.
That entire move thursday and friday was brought about with a broadening wedge pattern
That pattern is important in what I'm about to show you.
Here's the Vix showing the same pattern
Early next week i think the vix will pop to 17.00 or white trendline. Jolts will determine if we breakabove 17.00 or head back lower until Fomc Wed. As you saw what happened with the spy this pattern is vicious once it breaks out. If it does break out vix will pop back up to 20 and spy will go alot lower than 410.
If we break below 412 next target will be a retest of 410
Upside possibility after a pullback?
418.50 is my max target. If it breaks over 419 I thinks it's a 80% chance it's definitely going for that 422 gap close.
That move would probably resemble a cup and handle
One of the main reasons that I don't think the market is done going higher is because of the NYSE (NYA).
It's showing the same broadening wedge pattern that the Spy and Dow jones just completed. It's lagging because of the broader market is moving slowing than the Tech driving Spy.
tradingview.com/x/b9rBH18Estill has a gap to close and the move doesn't complete until
15,711.
What this means is you'll still see sectors outperforming.
XLV is one
XLF looks good over 33.30
I will say this, The Es and NQ are overbought on the 2 and 3 hour charts severely which means a 1½-2% pullback is coming for the future's . It does have an impact on regular session as far as the opener but let's say The ES is over bought but the spy isn't what happens is a gap down and buy up.
In this case The NQ and QQQ are both overbought so I think tech will keep selling after the opener..
Closes pullback target is 412.50 -413.00
I don't think they'll break below that yellow trendline support without a Catalyst and the nearest Catalyst is Tuesday Jolts job opening, which is 30min after market opens.
The biggest reason for the pullback is the overbought conditions in what lead to the market rally (tech). You have stocks like MSFT and Meta 2 days outside their bollingerband..
Qqq 1hour money flow is at 90 😆. CCI also overbought.
Yes big tech will lead to the pullback here early in the week.
That entire move thursday and friday was brought about with a broadening wedge pattern
That pattern is important in what I'm about to show you.
Here's the Vix showing the same pattern
Early next week i think the vix will pop to 17.00 or white trendline. Jolts will determine if we breakabove 17.00 or head back lower until Fomc Wed. As you saw what happened with the spy this pattern is vicious once it breaks out. If it does break out vix will pop back up to 20 and spy will go alot lower than 410.
If we break below 412 next target will be a retest of 410
Upside possibility after a pullback?
418.50 is my max target. If it breaks over 419 I thinks it's a 80% chance it's definitely going for that 422 gap close.
That move would probably resemble a cup and handle
One of the main reasons that I don't think the market is done going higher is because of the NYSE (NYA).
It's showing the same broadening wedge pattern that the Spy and Dow jones just completed. It's lagging because of the broader market is moving slowing than the Tech driving Spy.
tradingview.com/x/b9rBH18Estill has a gap to close and the move doesn't complete until
15,711.
What this means is you'll still see sectors outperforming.
XLV is one
XLF looks good over 33.30
I will say this, The Es and NQ are overbought on the 2 and 3 hour charts severely which means a 1½-2% pullback is coming for the future's . It does have an impact on regular session as far as the opener but let's say The ES is over bought but the spy isn't what happens is a gap down and buy up.
In this case The NQ and QQQ are both overbought so I think tech will keep selling after the opener..
Note
Games premarket.15min spy chart.
Rising wedge here with support on wedge around 415.00
Resistance 416.20.
ISM comes out at 10est
I'll be looking for an entry for spy puts
Target 413.00
Stop loss 416.50
Note
I'm short here Spy
5/5
413p
417.50 stop
Note
It's not enough weakness... tech is weak but not weak enough to balance out the bullishness in cyclicals , Financials..Most likely choppy a day
Things are still over bought but no one is selling .. needs a Catalyst..
Note
Iwm has a gap they are trying to close at 177.50 after that we'll seeNote
Ok so o QQQ closed its gap at 322.88Iwm closed its gap at 177
Nvda closed its gap at 286..
Should pullback here. I don't think they get there 418 today or tomorrow
Note
Flush is coming , either EOD or tomorrow..Spy 30min
DXY breaking out
Note
Let's blow off this topNote
321.30 QQQ Support415.50 spy support
We'll flush to the next level below that .
Looking at the vix 30min chart.
Possible double bottom forming
Note
Didn't cut..Added here
Spy
415p
5/5
They are just grinding up the wedge .. it's going to break
Note
Spy 15min..Don't chase these longs up here..
Literally 1$ more upside potential with 418.54.. resistance..
It won't break 418 before a flush
Note
You see the money flow on XLK 1 and 2 hour chart? Tech is going to tank soon and the drop will be hard .Note
Qqq holding things up, spoke broke its wedge support but QQQ is chopping at the bottom of its Jolts don't come out until 30min after market opens so we could open up with this chop again
Note
Look at those daily candles for the indexesNote
Es broke support also... targeting 4135 stillNote
Look at the 1hour chart on your futures for Dow jones - YM1
Spy - Es1
IWM - RTY
All of them have formed a Head & Shoulders . Pattern might play out after jolts
Note
Covering on both my 415p and 413p at the open
Has some price action support at around 414.50
Could bounce there and I don't want to hold through jolts. I rather get back in after!
Note
If spy breaks below 414.25 the next stop would be 413.00 . I don't think they'll let it break that trendline support today but let's see what happensNote
Looking at the Vix CCI on 30min and 1hour.. Overbought... high chance vix could pullback..
Obvious double bottom..
I'd place a tight stop on my puts even still..
When QQQ breaks 321 you know it's real, until than .....
Note
Short target almost hit on spyVix almost at resistance..
Could get an intra day bounce followed by a flush EOD.. ES wants 4135 now
Note
Next support319.00 qqq
410.50 spy..
I'll be looking for an entry to buy to calls at some point
Note
So vix broke out of the broadening wedge.. Will most likely complete the move between 19.50-20.00Note
The thing about buying the dip in bearish momentum is, any pop will fade until momentum changes! Example - Amd beats earnings and the market gaps open, 30min after the market opens that gap will fade until a news , or calender event changes momentum.. today jolts change the momentum, the pattern was there, jolts just gave it a nudge..
Note
1 hour vix RSI and CCI way too oversoldAlso the 1hour MFI and RSI on the futures oversold.. I'm expecting either a intraday bounce on a big bounce tomorrow...
Scailing in spy 5/9 412c when spy reaches 408.00.
.
407 stop loss.. shouldn't drop below 407
Note
I'm in .. let's see what happens..Note
Support levels across the board.Qqq- 318
Spy -408
Dow - 33,500
IWM - 170.00
Been watching those.. they've been holding. As long as the vix doesn't break over 20 I think we're good on calls ..
Dow bounced off support..
Note
XOM calls 111c
5/12
108.50 stop loss
Oil is way oversold.. CL futures and xle .
Daily candles outside bollingerband
Note
Upside resistance is 410.50 now for spy.Over that 412
Note
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.