June 27th, 2025 - Morning Brief

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Friday, June 27, 2025. Markets are on the edge, and if you thought summer would bring calm, think again. Today’s script is pure adrenaline.

Overnight, the U.S. and China finally inked a trade deal that actually matters: tariffs are coming down, and rare earths are flowing again. Tech and manufacturing stocks are already celebrating, with SPX and NQ1! futures inching toward fresh record highs. NVDA is still the market’s favorite lottery ticket, hitting another all-time high. Meanwhile, NKE just spiked 10% premarket after beating earnings. Never mind the $1 billion tariff punch, they’ll “manage it.” Sure.

But the real show is the May PCE inflation data dropping this morning. The Fed’s favorite gauge is expected to tick up to 2.3% year-over-year, with core PCE at 2.6%. If the numbers surprise, brace for whiplash in rates and risk assets. GDP’s third estimate confirmed a -0.5% contraction in Q1, so the “soft landing” crowd is sweating. Jobless claims and new home sales hit at 10:00 AM ET. Expect every algo on the Street to be watching.

Trump is making noise about firing Powell before 2026, which has traders betting on earlier rate cuts. If you’re looking for stability, you’re in the wrong casino.

Here’s where things stand:
- XAUUSD : $3,280–$3,334/oz (slipping as risk appetite returns)
- WTI : $65.64–$65.82/barrel (steady, but one headline away from chaos)
- BTCUSDT : $107,215–$107,477 (down, but still a six-figure fever dream)
- ES1! : Hovering just below the 6,144 record

Today’s takeaway: The market’s running on hope, caffeine, and denial. Stay sharp, one bad print and the rally could turn into a stampede for the exits. Welcome to the volatility vortex.

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