Long

Updated

Spy

Money flow and Rsi on 1hour as over as it was back at March 13th, I'll let you do the homework of what happened .

Market is correcting so I wont go over the obvious, you can check my previous post for info

I think the vix should take this route on a pullback.. 2-4 hour CCI is telling me a pullback is coming for vix

But I have to admit, vix daily Macd crossed over and one could argue this maybe a cup and forming and if that's the case I hope it doesn't breakout tomorrow or all calls are fawked amd we are going straight to 390 with no sincere bounce

Everybody wants the perfect entry but buying calls below the daily 21ema is risky.. The spy and Qqq both got smacked down at their 21ema today.

Still, giving what I know, I like calls above 405 with a target of 410 or trendline resistance with a 21ema speed bump to watch out for in-between.

Last 2 days cylicals ,small caps have led the way lower and now those stocks are oversold severely. GDP comes out Premarket tomorrow, GDP numbers usually impact cyclicals more so I'll be watching the reaction.
IWM daily Candle along with DJT finished completely outside its BBands.

Es bounce off 4070, price is showing a tight wedge here, really don't have room for another down day. If we lose 4070, 4029 is next. 3 and 4hour money flow both going oversold, when that happens you usually see a a 1½% move higher.

Also whenever prices rise really fast a rising wedge will form. Whenever price falls fast always look for the falling wedge

Some of you want to know can spy go to 414,416,420.. let's see if we get 410 first

Lastly , be prepared to take profits , gains aren't holding , every pop is fading. At the open I grab googl calls off 102.90 and sold most at 106, imagine if I'd held... I bought back in at 103 so we'll see what happens their.

Note

Meta upside is 244.. over that 250. But I wouldn't chase. Remember what I said about msft yesterday at 297..

No calls on spy until it breaks over 408 or 21ema.. it's gapping inside this yellow channel with support at 406.50..

If you swung calls , nothing is promise and you should manage your position. If spy breaks below 406 we could retest 405 again.

Over 408 and 410 is my target

XLC (Communication sector)
Is breaking to the upside of a cup and Handle

Biggest stocks in that sector
Googl
Meta
NFLX

Note

Chip sector (Smh) led yesterday and is lagging today.

XLE,XME, lagging..

XLV needs to hold 200sma .

Tightened the stop on your calls. This isn't the day to trade ETFs.. chop involved because of the mix sectors

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Covering 50% of googl calls at 106.00..
The other half I let ride with a 105.00 stop loss

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Vix pulled back to support

Possible double top playing out to gap close

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IWM, and DJT picking up strength. If iwm can break over 173 we Should see a push on spy soon over 408. Spy needs either Cylicals and small cap to push higher or Tech..
Spy - 408 resistance
Iwm - 173 resistance
Qqq - 316 resistance

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Msft by itself can offset any losses by the entire chip sector.. Msft wants 310 gap close (Not advice)

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Cylicals,IWM and DJT showing weakness again.. as long as they don't flush spy should hold 406.50 but for now it's just tech pushing

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Cmon googl.. let's gap close baby.. moved stop up to 106.00 on remaining.. don't like to swing calls after massive runs like this

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Nq 1hour outside Bollinger band and 1 hour Money flow overbought...

They could continue to melt this up to 13,200

This would mean a test of 319 for QQQ

Have a tight stop
I'll be back on later

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Moved google stop up to 107.00
My target is 108.80 gap close

Feels like one of those melt up days
. If you want to short wait till last 5min of they day.. I think they will just keep pushing.

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Spy 1hour..
Possible finish the move today to 410.80 or 411.. Double bottom I mentioned yesterday is playing out.. SOB stopped me out 😤 on spy calls and qqq calls at 313... it's cool , stops have extended my tenure in this game. Small losses really is 🔑

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Covering here on googl. They'll probably melt up last hour.. they can keep the change. "NEVER HOLD OUT FOR TOP DOLLAR"

You see how they intentionally suppress XLV, SMH, and XLE to keep spy under 411.. can't have all sectors running full steam or spy would be 412+ easily

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Qqq 4 hour chart using lines

Closing up at the yellow resistance. Could flag up to 330 (Keep an open mind)..
I wait for the breakout. Too risky to swing calls here at 319

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Vix.. 1 hour cci getting oversold..
Still should close 16.80 gap and maybe drilled down to support around 16.50

I figure it's a 70% chance vix gaps up tomorrow

Note

Inverted H&S forming on the Dow jones 15min

If Healthcare sector starts to pump things will start to pop

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Whenever you see the ES or NQ 3-4hour moneyflow go oversold expect these type of melts.. first it starts with a technical bounce, then if the bears can't suppress , the squeeze takes affect

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You see XLV 30 min chart? There's a double bottom forming.

XLV is the second biggest sector and defensive. Usually when they pump tech this will lag as it did today. The fact that they are setting up for a rally tomorrow and tech is overbought now. If the market tanks tomorrow , it will most likely come from tech which means if you're bearish you would rather Short QQQ than spy; the reason is, if XLV does pop it will mitigate spy losses which means we could see a day where nasdaq is down 1% and spy only ½%

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Spy has completed the move for this idea.
.

Still has the gap to close at 412.60

Although I think they will melt last hour you have to be careful and not get greedy.

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Qqq wasn't responsible for none of the last 30min move on spy.
XLV , Healthcare got involved..

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They'll push this to ES hits 4160..
Once there , I'm bearish

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NQ 4 hour chart.. 4 hour candle outside its bollingerband. 1 hour rsi and MfI overbought.

I'm looking for a pullback to 13075

The pullback may come from Amzn or Core PCE

Waiting for EOD (Last 5min) to go short on QQQ 318
5/5

Disclosure Qqq does have an upside gap at 323 it can close and then flush but I'm taking my chances. We could see a fawkery move like a gap down then a buy up later in the day

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Possible scenario..
Pullback and retest white trendline around 410 then melt higher with n inverese H&S

The inverted is farfetched but keep am opened mind...

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Holding my short on Qqq.. stop loss 322.

NQ still overbought.

My target is 318.50

Keep your eye on Amzn...
Stock hasn't broken its 200sma at 106.85
They might run this up today...
PCE translation IMO was stagflation

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There is a chance of a melt up.
Es is flagging off trendline support.

Calls on spy over 413.
Target 415...

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This is why I shorted qqq over spy. Energy and health are up while tech is barley down = chop on the spy..
If qqq holds 318.50 market could turn bullish

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Covered on qqq puts here

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Back in googl calls .
108c
5/5

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105.50 stop

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The biggest drag on Tech bounced at support amzn

My logic is this, if amzn isn't heading lower, why be bearish..
If amzn breaks 104, it's going back to 100

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Should've went with aapl.. still like the the googl trade but XLC(Meta/Googl) might get treated like a step son today if aapl and msft runs

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This thing is about to melt up again today 😆
322 gap close on qqq incoming

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Extreme fawkery...
Spy and QQQ money flow on 30min are overbought and 1 hour almost too but they may melt this up still for the rest of the day.
Then gap down pullback starts next week going into aapl

My targets

416 spy
322.80 QQQ

Note

Msft 310
Aapl 171

Note

319 support qqq
413.00 spy

Things get ugly if those levels break.. otherwise it's just a pullback

I will say this .. the vix is oversold on the 30min RSI and cci which could cause intraday spikes and its nearing support..

If you got a good entry earlier cool. Nows not the time for new longs

Still in Googl
Stop loss 105.50

Note

302p
Msft
5/5
307 stop loss

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Fawkery .. I'm covering early on MSFT. Qqq won't break 319 but can't hold over 321...

I could go back in with 170 aapl calls but I'm calling it a day.. I only make 1-2 trades a day and I'm leaving the week green.

Note

IWM is going for that gap close at 177.
Bullish harami on the daily Candle.
Same with DJT ..

Tech is basically taking a breather..

Vix is oversold which makes swinging calls risky.. you're dancing with 😈.

But can't short it...

You have to pick individual bearish stock because the market wants to go higher.

Here's XLF .. does that look bearish?

Here's XLY and XLK, both are trying to break outside this channel/flag

And this is why qqq is struggling at its resistance.. if these sectors break out QQQ is going to 330 and spy 418-420. If these sector ls turn out to be bear channels , then the next drop on the market will be ugly

So to sum it up,
Market wants to go higher

Market is overbought and due for a pullback soon.

Have a good weekend. I'll do a new post Sunday

ContraryTrader

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ContraryTrader

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Spy

by ContraryTrader