SPY Approaching Apex โ Breakout or Trap Ahead? ๐ฅ
๐ Technical Analysis (1H Chart)
SPY has reclaimed the rising wedge support trendline and is now grinding just beneath a confluence of resistance near 633.61. This is the third test of this breakout zone, forming a squeeze triangle with lower highs and higher lows.
Key Structure Notes:
* Bullish momentum continues to build on the MACD histogram with rising blue bars and a bullish cross already established.
* Stoch RSI is extremely overbought (96+), which suggests caution โ SPY is vulnerable to rejection if buyers lose steam.
* Price action remains orderly and within trendline compression. A breakout above 634 could unleash aggressive buying, while losing 631 opens the door to retest 627โ628 demand.
Intraday Levels to Watch:
* ๐ Resistance: 633.61 โ 634.20 โ 637.00 (key horizontal resistance and fib extension)
* ๐ Support: 631.00 โ 628.20 โ 626.90 โ 619.25
๐ Options GEX & Dealer Positioning
The GEX board favors bullish continuation โ but also hints at gamma traps near the top:
* ๐ข 634.00โ634.20: 91.11% GEX concentration at 2nd CALL Wall โ this is the biggest dealer hedge wall; could act as resistance or gamma squeeze fuel if broken.
* ๐ข 637.00: Highest positive net GEX โ if SPY pushes above 634 and holds, momentum could carry toward 637.
* ๐ด 626.00โ625.00: Layered PUT walls and HVL zone provide strong downside cushion.
* ๐งญ Net GEX is moderately positive, suggesting dealer flows will slow upside moves unless a sharp squeeze kicks in. Watch IVR (15.3) โ low enough to allow scalps but not favorable for selling premium.
๐ง Game Plan & Thoughts
* ๐ Bullish Scenario: Break and hold above 634 confirms the triangle breakout โ target 637โ638 next.
* ๐ Bearish Rejection: Failure at 633.61 or loss of 631 reopens path back to 628.20โ626.90 zone.
* ๐ฏ Suggested Setup: Long scalp above 634 โ TP: 637 | SL: 631.โจShort setup below 631 โ TP: 627 | SL: 634.
Momentum is on the bulls' side for now, but you're buying into a potentially crowded breakout zone. Watch volume and reaction around 634 โ breakout or fade will decide next leg.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always manage your risk.
๐ Technical Analysis (1H Chart)
SPY has reclaimed the rising wedge support trendline and is now grinding just beneath a confluence of resistance near 633.61. This is the third test of this breakout zone, forming a squeeze triangle with lower highs and higher lows.
Key Structure Notes:
* Bullish momentum continues to build on the MACD histogram with rising blue bars and a bullish cross already established.
* Stoch RSI is extremely overbought (96+), which suggests caution โ SPY is vulnerable to rejection if buyers lose steam.
* Price action remains orderly and within trendline compression. A breakout above 634 could unleash aggressive buying, while losing 631 opens the door to retest 627โ628 demand.
Intraday Levels to Watch:
* ๐ Resistance: 633.61 โ 634.20 โ 637.00 (key horizontal resistance and fib extension)
* ๐ Support: 631.00 โ 628.20 โ 626.90 โ 619.25
๐ Options GEX & Dealer Positioning
The GEX board favors bullish continuation โ but also hints at gamma traps near the top:
* ๐ข 634.00โ634.20: 91.11% GEX concentration at 2nd CALL Wall โ this is the biggest dealer hedge wall; could act as resistance or gamma squeeze fuel if broken.
* ๐ข 637.00: Highest positive net GEX โ if SPY pushes above 634 and holds, momentum could carry toward 637.
* ๐ด 626.00โ625.00: Layered PUT walls and HVL zone provide strong downside cushion.
* ๐งญ Net GEX is moderately positive, suggesting dealer flows will slow upside moves unless a sharp squeeze kicks in. Watch IVR (15.3) โ low enough to allow scalps but not favorable for selling premium.
๐ง Game Plan & Thoughts
* ๐ Bullish Scenario: Break and hold above 634 confirms the triangle breakout โ target 637โ638 next.
* ๐ Bearish Rejection: Failure at 633.61 or loss of 631 reopens path back to 628.20โ626.90 zone.
* ๐ฏ Suggested Setup: Long scalp above 634 โ TP: 637 | SL: 631.โจShort setup below 631 โ TP: 627 | SL: 634.
Momentum is on the bulls' side for now, but you're buying into a potentially crowded breakout zone. Watch volume and reaction around 634 โ breakout or fade will decide next leg.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always manage your risk.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.