I forgot how that old saying went, but I knew its time for a good deal. My first tip off that we might be at a bottom was fear and greed sitting at a 4 on Friday. Into the weekend I saw Cramer and friends calling 1987 crash and historic doom headed for the economy. I saw a stat saying that this was the biggest crash since 2008, covid not withstanding. And then I saw one of my favorite tells, I call it the comedy indicator. When things are so bullish that people can only laugh at how easy it is to get rich... its a good sign to get out. The same goes when joking about the depression and how doomed it is, it's probably a good time to get in. So SNL having multiple segments joking about the depression was a good tell to me that we were rounding a corner.
Next I check some fundamentals, the S5TW is pretty useful in spotting bottoms temporary or otherwise, right now its sitting around 2-3% or 97-98% of SNP stocks below their 20 day MA. This is the level it was during the Jun 2022 bottom (before the massive run-up into august for those that remember, 18% in under 2 months) The 2022 October bottom, and of course the march 2020 covid bottom.
Finally you got some basic chart indicators, accumulation/distribution showing that we are still at the 560 level. the McLellan which shows that the 2 day massive sell off was not actually as broad as it may have seemed. Then there is the classic Stupid Willy, who is tuned to -5 and -95 to avoid too many false signals, not only did it signal twice the last 2 trade days, today the smoothed line crossed the signal EMA which tells me buyers had some solid force at this level. The Bollinger Band also looks like it may start curling around and we finally managed to tap into the bottom of the band (briefly) but that tells me there is some good room to run and it may be that time.
Overall I think this bottom is at the very least temporary, we should go up from here, complacency, hope, whatever it is should return. 560 may be too high, but I see us filling Friday's Gap down and maybe getting into the 540s in the coming weeks.
Happy Trading & Good Luck
Next I check some fundamentals, the S5TW is pretty useful in spotting bottoms temporary or otherwise, right now its sitting around 2-3% or 97-98% of SNP stocks below their 20 day MA. This is the level it was during the Jun 2022 bottom (before the massive run-up into august for those that remember, 18% in under 2 months) The 2022 October bottom, and of course the march 2020 covid bottom.
Finally you got some basic chart indicators, accumulation/distribution showing that we are still at the 560 level. the McLellan which shows that the 2 day massive sell off was not actually as broad as it may have seemed. Then there is the classic Stupid Willy, who is tuned to -5 and -95 to avoid too many false signals, not only did it signal twice the last 2 trade days, today the smoothed line crossed the signal EMA which tells me buyers had some solid force at this level. The Bollinger Band also looks like it may start curling around and we finally managed to tap into the bottom of the band (briefly) but that tells me there is some good room to run and it may be that time.
Overall I think this bottom is at the very least temporary, we should go up from here, complacency, hope, whatever it is should return. 560 may be too high, but I see us filling Friday's Gap down and maybe getting into the 540s in the coming weeks.
Happy Trading & Good Luck
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.