SPY at a Decision Point โ Will 639 Hold or Break? ๐๐
Technical Analysis (1H Chart)
SPY is showing a classic bounce attempt after the sharp selloff. Price is sitting around 637โ638, just under the downtrend resistance line. The chart highlights:
* Trendline Pressure: Multiple touches of the descending trendline; rejection risk remains high unless bulls reclaim 641โ642.
* Key Support: Buyers defended the 635 zone, with the next strong support down at 632โ633. Losing this area could trigger another wave lower.
* Momentum Indicators:
* MACD is trying to curl bullish from oversold, but momentum is shallow.
* Stoch RSI is already extended near overbought โ suggesting rallies may stall soon if not confirmed with volume.
* Structure: If SPY fails to clear 641.5โ642, we may see another lower-high formation and retest of 635.
Trading View (Intraday):
* Bullish case โ Clear break + hold above 642, targeting 646โ647 supply zone.
* Bearish case โ Failure under 639โ641 could drag SPY back toward 635โ633.
GEX / Options Sentiment
Options positioning confirms this tight battle zone:
* Call Walls / Resistance:
* 640 โ First big resistance, aligning with HVL zone.
* 642โ644 โ Multiple call walls (9โ10% concentration).
* 647โ648 โ Extreme upside wall, likely gamma cap.
* Put Walls / Support:
* 637 (GEX7 / -11%) โ First downside magnet.
* 635 (2nd Put Wall / -20%) โ Strong support cluster.
* 632 (GEX10 / -5%) โ Deeper downside target if selling extends.
* Net Options Flow:
* Puts dominate ~87% (bearish tilt).
* IVR low (14.4) โ cheap options pricing, directional plays favored.
* GEX heavily negative at 639, meaning dealer hedging could accelerate volatility around this pivot.
Thoughts & Suggestions
* Market is heavily leaning bearish, but intraday scalps can flip quickly if bulls reclaim 642.
* For options traders:
* Bullish scalp setup โ Calls only if breakout above 642 with momentum confirmation.
* Bearish setup โ Favor puts on rejection under 639โ641, with 635/632 as profit zones.
* Risk management is key here: chop is possible between 637โ641 before a decisive move.
๐ Conclusion: SPY is at a tight inflection between 639 support and 641โ642 resistance. Dealer flow favors downside, but if bulls can reclaim 642, a short squeeze toward 646โ647 opens up. Until then, bias stays slightly bearish.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk before trading.
Technical Analysis (1H Chart)
SPY is showing a classic bounce attempt after the sharp selloff. Price is sitting around 637โ638, just under the downtrend resistance line. The chart highlights:
* Trendline Pressure: Multiple touches of the descending trendline; rejection risk remains high unless bulls reclaim 641โ642.
* Key Support: Buyers defended the 635 zone, with the next strong support down at 632โ633. Losing this area could trigger another wave lower.
* Momentum Indicators:
* MACD is trying to curl bullish from oversold, but momentum is shallow.
* Stoch RSI is already extended near overbought โ suggesting rallies may stall soon if not confirmed with volume.
* Structure: If SPY fails to clear 641.5โ642, we may see another lower-high formation and retest of 635.
Trading View (Intraday):
* Bullish case โ Clear break + hold above 642, targeting 646โ647 supply zone.
* Bearish case โ Failure under 639โ641 could drag SPY back toward 635โ633.
GEX / Options Sentiment
Options positioning confirms this tight battle zone:
* Call Walls / Resistance:
* 640 โ First big resistance, aligning with HVL zone.
* 642โ644 โ Multiple call walls (9โ10% concentration).
* 647โ648 โ Extreme upside wall, likely gamma cap.
* Put Walls / Support:
* 637 (GEX7 / -11%) โ First downside magnet.
* 635 (2nd Put Wall / -20%) โ Strong support cluster.
* 632 (GEX10 / -5%) โ Deeper downside target if selling extends.
* Net Options Flow:
* Puts dominate ~87% (bearish tilt).
* IVR low (14.4) โ cheap options pricing, directional plays favored.
* GEX heavily negative at 639, meaning dealer hedging could accelerate volatility around this pivot.
Thoughts & Suggestions
* Market is heavily leaning bearish, but intraday scalps can flip quickly if bulls reclaim 642.
* For options traders:
* Bullish scalp setup โ Calls only if breakout above 642 with momentum confirmation.
* Bearish setup โ Favor puts on rejection under 639โ641, with 635/632 as profit zones.
* Risk management is key here: chop is possible between 637โ641 before a decisive move.
๐ Conclusion: SPY is at a tight inflection between 639 support and 641โ642 resistance. Dealer flow favors downside, but if bulls can reclaim 642, a short squeeze toward 646โ647 opens up. Until then, bias stays slightly bearish.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk before trading.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.