Ticker: SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust)
All-Time High Reference: SPY hit a record close at $649.12 on Sept 4, 2025, with an intraday peak around $652.21. That’s the level we’re watching.
Catalysts on Deck
Retail Sales (Mon, 6/17): Strong numbers = more fuel for the bulls. Weak print = pressure on consumer strength, could weigh on SPY.
Unemployment Claims (Tue, 6/18): Clean data here can push risk-on. A spike in claims could bring some hesitation into the market.
Why We Don’t Trade CHOP
If you zoom out to the 30m–1h, price has just been moving sideways. No clean trend, no conviction. Trading that kind of action is low probability:
Breakouts fail more often than not.
Noise > signal.
Risk/reward doesn’t make sense without direction.
Bottom line: we wait for momentum. If there’s no momentum, we don’t force it.
Game Plan
Bullish setup: Gap filled and bounced at 635.01. As long as we hold trend, look for calls back toward ATH. A clean break above ~652 with volume = room to run 655–660+.
Bearish setup: Only if we see a hard rejection near highs. Watch 635 as first support, then 620 if things pull back.
Bias remains bullish. We’re in an uptrend, we’re near highs, and catalysts this week will decide if we get continuation or stall out. Stay patient, let the levels play out.
All-Time High Reference: SPY hit a record close at $649.12 on Sept 4, 2025, with an intraday peak around $652.21. That’s the level we’re watching.
Catalysts on Deck
Retail Sales (Mon, 6/17): Strong numbers = more fuel for the bulls. Weak print = pressure on consumer strength, could weigh on SPY.
Unemployment Claims (Tue, 6/18): Clean data here can push risk-on. A spike in claims could bring some hesitation into the market.
Why We Don’t Trade CHOP
If you zoom out to the 30m–1h, price has just been moving sideways. No clean trend, no conviction. Trading that kind of action is low probability:
Breakouts fail more often than not.
Noise > signal.
Risk/reward doesn’t make sense without direction.
Bottom line: we wait for momentum. If there’s no momentum, we don’t force it.
Game Plan
Bullish setup: Gap filled and bounced at 635.01. As long as we hold trend, look for calls back toward ATH. A clean break above ~652 with volume = room to run 655–660+.
Bearish setup: Only if we see a hard rejection near highs. Watch 635 as first support, then 620 if things pull back.
Bias remains bullish. We’re in an uptrend, we’re near highs, and catalysts this week will decide if we get continuation or stall out. Stay patient, let the levels play out.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.