While I was early to the idea (like usual), still don't think the thesis will be wrong. I still believe we're going to see a large move down from here.
Yesterday's price action made me pretty confident a top was in (TBD). We had positive news and the market couldn't rally on that positive news and we ended up closing at the lows -- indicating to me there's no more buyers.
Today we have treasuries, the dollar and volatility all rallying while equities selloff, a classic risk off signal. You also have crypto selling off too.
I think we see a large risk off move from here on out, the target is the $440 area (extreme down to $400), but if we find support at one of the other levels above that, there's potential for us to rally from there.
Will have to see how price action plays out over the coming weeks.
Yesterday's price action made me pretty confident a top was in (TBD). We had positive news and the market couldn't rally on that positive news and we ended up closing at the lows -- indicating to me there's no more buyers.
Today we have treasuries, the dollar and volatility all rallying while equities selloff, a classic risk off signal. You also have crypto selling off too.
I think we see a large risk off move from here on out, the target is the $440 area (extreme down to $400), but if we find support at one of the other levels above that, there's potential for us to rally from there.
Will have to see how price action plays out over the coming weeks.
Note
META and MSFT pushed markets higher after hours. We have PCE and jobless claims at open. If those are positive, then I see next resistance at $645.51. $655 after (but I don't think that's a likely outcome). The fall back under the resistance level on the chart will be the trigger that the move to the downside has started as that is one of the most important levels on the chart.
None of this price action changes my view that we are about to see a large move down. Study a chart of covid and you'll understand why.
See you again when we bottom.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.