NVDA earnings will not disappoint
PCE will be doable
big money has rebalanced and will let it drift higher (along with yields)
This week was just a nice healthy dip and markets will just shrug off negative news until the tipping point, in which case another sharp repricing will happen. Followed by a relief rally in August but then bitter disappointment in September.
I pause but then I'm sadly strangled to agree... 3Y/5Y hasn't inverted, sentiment is a bit too skittish, and according to chatgpt, this was not a break of the long term pattern and short of super ugly surprises in the original 3 points above, it will not end in capitulation. And again, I might just agree. Even in the midst of the Liberation Day shocks, we barely got into a bear market, there was no massive retaliation and dumping of foreign held treasuries.
Basically we built a pretty good nation. Even when the government takes a chainsaw to itself and companies have to pull out their own arms to import supplies and are pausing any capital expenditures until the picture clears up, financial markets are like, meh, it'll be fine. I thought we'd have a earnings ratio collapse by now, but we're even still higher than our Shiller average....
PCE will be doable
big money has rebalanced and will let it drift higher (along with yields)
This week was just a nice healthy dip and markets will just shrug off negative news until the tipping point, in which case another sharp repricing will happen. Followed by a relief rally in August but then bitter disappointment in September.
I pause but then I'm sadly strangled to agree... 3Y/5Y hasn't inverted, sentiment is a bit too skittish, and according to chatgpt, this was not a break of the long term pattern and short of super ugly surprises in the original 3 points above, it will not end in capitulation. And again, I might just agree. Even in the midst of the Liberation Day shocks, we barely got into a bear market, there was no massive retaliation and dumping of foreign held treasuries.
Basically we built a pretty good nation. Even when the government takes a chainsaw to itself and companies have to pull out their own arms to import supplies and are pausing any capital expenditures until the picture clears up, financial markets are like, meh, it'll be fine. I thought we'd have a earnings ratio collapse by now, but we're even still higher than our Shiller average....
I usually try not to tell you what to do -- too crowded there. I'll point out what price points/trends/patterns the pros are looking at and let you interpret what that means for your portfolio.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
I usually try not to tell you what to do -- too crowded there. I'll point out what price points/trends/patterns the pros are looking at and let you interpret what that means for your portfolio.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.