Short

Updated

SPY-SHORT-UPDATE

SPY has completed a 5 wave sequence.

-Wave 1 & Wave 5 Extended

-Correction Wave B went above the terminal point of Wave 5.

-Elliot calls this an irregular correction and can be subject to "Double Retracement". Double Retracement corrects Wave 5 and then the whole wave sequence.

I don't think we could see a double retracement due to economic conditions.

Chart:

Catalyst:

1. White House
2. Geo-politics

Will update.

-AB

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Potential Headline Catalyst Down:

1. Kavanaugh
2. Mueller
3. Midterms
4. Big Tech - Breaking News about Data Collection methods by FB, TWTR, and Google.

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Irregular corrections usually appear after wave 5 of a cycle, and would correct the entire five waves according to Elliott’s approach to this phenomenon. The first move after the end of wave 5 would be a three wave affair and is labeled as Wave A. The Wave B that follows will also be in three sub waves but the price will exceed the top of Wave 5. Thereafter, we will get a normal Wave C made up of five sub waves.

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Wave 5 extension= 16.47%

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A bad storm is brewing.

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Prior Super Cycle Correction was a Flat.

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We are in the beginning of a new Super Cycle.

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Other headline catalyst:

-FISA Declassifiation

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Implemented an Put option strategy to protect portfolio.

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Looking ready to drop...

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New Headline about to drop?

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Narratives matter...

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These Sub-Waves will provide the bigger picture.

Extending S-3?

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Wave C needs 5 Sub-Waves to be completed.

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Wave Analysis and Fibonacci are used the same when going down.

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Extending Sub-Wave 3

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Reminder: Extending Waves = Impossible to know what level they stop.

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4.618 is a key level for me.

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If we break 4.618, support starts around $250.

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So far, not good sub-wave 3 traveled over 320% of S1 & S2.

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Double Retrace:

1. Retrace Extension
2. 5th Wave Sequence

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No signs of finding support...

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Reminder: Wave A & Wave B Sub-Wave were both shown in the WEEKLY chart!

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We are clearly at an inflection point in history.

Do we continue with an old Fiat money system?

Do we continue to let a privately held bank govern monetary policy?

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What caused the last ‘recession’?

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“The real cause of the Great Recession lay not in the housing market but in the misguided monetary policy of the Federal Reserve” -

“The Fed can control NGDP through its monetary policy, and as NGDP fell in 2008, the Fed should have lowered interest rates rapidly. If that proved insufficient, it should have increased the money supply through quantitative easing. Instead, the Fed, terrified of inflation, kept interest rates too high for too long—causing NGDP to fall even further.” -

Source: ForeignAffairs.com

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Bogey Man - Inflation

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If 270 is broken, next stop is 250.

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Still got more to go...

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S3 Extended

Wave A was 3

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Friday: Correction Sequence

Monday: S5

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66 Days to form Wave A

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170 days to form Wave B

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$240 looks to be the Terminal Point of the correction.

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Correction will not be completed until AFTER 2019.

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Best SHORT: wait till S2 completes and short higher degree Wave 3

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Clarification: Correction will not be completed until Jan. 2019.

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Wave 2 Terminal projection: $288

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S1Terminal Projection: $273

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Timeframe:

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S5 Complete: Oct. 18

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Yellow = Lower Degree
Teal = Higher Degree

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We need to watch higher degree Wave 5 very carefully and be on watch for "Double Retracement."

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Don’t fall for the head-fake

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S5 still needs to be completed

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S=sub-waves

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Here comes the reversal...

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Not sure what the headline will be or maybe it’s an earnings report but this will fade in After-Hours

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Netflix? Pop and Drop?

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Will Netflix pop hold?

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Netflix is still in a Correction...

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Here comes wave 2 back up

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Sub-Wave 5 hit target exactly

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I would use this rally to exit any positions you don't want to hold before Wave 3 down begins...

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Wait till $282 then Short.

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Looks like we WILL see Double Retracement

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Wave 1:
Sub-Wave 3 Extended
Sub-Wave 5 Extended

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Wave 5 Extension Target is between $259 & $255

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Double Retrace is in Play

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Don't Sell here! Wait for Wave 2 to get out of any position you don't want to hold.

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Pretty Confident Wave 1 is complete...

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Indicators look good

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.618 is the Key Hurdle

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Election Day?

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5th Wave will be a big test...

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Complex Correction implies a strong move higher.

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$284 is a key level.

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Starting to fail...

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Watch for the reversal

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Wave 2 hit target almost exactly...

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Target was $282.

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Above: The Turn.

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SPX Chart is a little scary!

We have clearly completed Waves 1, 2, 3, and 4.

We are in the 5th Wave...

The question is are we more towards the beginning of Wave 5 or more towards the end?

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Above in Pink shows the most recent Wave Sequence.

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260-250 are Critical Levels

If Broken look to 210 for support...

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S1 is going to be tested.

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Doesn’t look good...

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Note Wave A.

Wave C needs 5 sub-waves.

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Very inclined to double retrace...

Probably nothing will be safe...

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Sub-Wave 5 is a tell to double retrace...

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If Sub-Wave 5 breaks S1 & S2 in meaningful way we will likely see new lows.

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Buckle up...

New Lows imminent...

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Wave C Time Est. = 210 days...

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Shaping up to be a real blood bath...

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What brand new market is forming?

Where is the money going?

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$218 Target for Double Retrace

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Russell MAY be ok...HOLD

MJ Stocks MAY be ok...HOLD

TSLA looks ok..BUY

Inverse short ETF...

Inverse Correlation SPY equities:

1. Micro Cap Equities
2. Some Biotech
3. Blockchain/Digital

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Zombie/Corrupt Companies must either fail or clean house

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Fed?

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On life support?

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Fed engineered economic collapses instead of expansions...FACT

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If I’m right about SPX (All-Time Chart) we can go a lot lower than 218.

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$1,338...

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Wish I could make this more digestible but...it is looking pretty bad!

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The ONE glimmer of hope...

Sub-Wave 1 Extended (Yellow Box)

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Sub-Wave 2 only retraced .382 of Sub-Wave 1, could this imply the higher degree wave will extend as well? Possible.

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Think I solved it...

.382 = $2,056.93

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Yea, very high degree of confidence $2,056.93 will be the bottom.

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If .382 Fails we will see $1,338.

The World is Changing...

FAST!

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Strongly encourage portfolio protection or move to the side lines...

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Indicators: All ugly...

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Volume Disappearing?

Makes you wonder...

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Current support (Green Spirals)

When they break, the market will take sharp leg lower....

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Closing Idea...

Please visit most recent idea...

Trade closed manually

Trade closed: target reached

FibMarketWatch

Also on:

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FibMarketWatch

Also on:

Related publications

SPY - SELL - BUY PUTS

by FibMarketWatch