Price Action & Market Structure
* SPY is trading around 648.4, consolidating inside a rising channel after bouncing from 644 HVL support.
* Momentum has slowed after rejecting near 649–650, but structure is still constructive as long as price holds above 646–645.
* Market bias remains neutral-to-bullish unless 644 breaks.
Key Levels
* Resistance (Upside Caps):
* 649–650 → Immediate resistance zone.
* 651–652 → Strong Call Wall / Gamma resistance.
* 653–655 → Higher extension levels.
* Support (Downside Floors):
* 646.0 HVL → Key balance level.
* 645.0–644.0 → Strong support cluster.
* 643.0–640.0 → Put Walls / deeper cushion.
Options Sentiment (GEX & IV)
* GEX: Bearish skew, with Puts 117.6% dominating positioning.
* IVR: 11.6, relatively low → options market not expecting extreme moves.
* Gamma Walls:
* 652–653 = Strong Call resistance.
* 646–644 = Strong support zone.
Indicators
* MACD (15m): Rolling bearish after early strength, showing momentum fading.
* Stoch RSI: Resetting lower, oversold zone nearing, could support bounce if 646 holds.
Scenarios for Today
Bullish Case (if 646–645 holds):
* Defend 646–645 support, push through 649–650.
* Targets: 651–652 → 653–655.
Bearish Case (if 646 fails):
* Breakdown under 646–645, move into 644 HVL.
* If 644 breaks → accelerated downside toward 643–640.
Trading Thoughts
* Longs: Buy dips near 646–645, targeting 650–652, stops below 644.
* Shorts: Fade rejection at 650–652, stops above 653.
* Stops:
* Longs → below 644.
* Shorts → above 653.
Summary
SPY sits at a pivotal mid-zone (646–650). Holding this range favors upside continuation into 652–655, but options positioning (Put heavy) warns of downside hedging pressure. A clean break under 646–644 flips momentum bearish into 640.
⚠️ This analysis is for educational purposes only, not financial advice. Always manage risk properly.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.