— What Monday Holds for Bulls & Bears ⚔️📉
🔍 GEX & Options Sentiment Overview:
From the daily GEX chart:
* Key Gamma Levels:
* 📍Call Walls: 597 → 602 (supply zones), strong resistance.
* 📍Put Walls: 590 → 587 → 572, significant gamma exposure to the downside.
* High Volatility Zone (HVL) at 590 – a trigger level; under this, the market may accelerate downside toward 587 and even 572.
* GEX Summary:
* PUTS: 80.4% dominance
* GEX Net: 🔴 extremely negative
* IVR 23.3, still on the lower side but rising
* Implication: Dealers are hedging to the downside. Gamma exposure creates risk of accelerated selloff below 590.
📊 Technical Analysis – Daily (1D)
* Price: 594.28 (as of Friday close)
* Trend: Daily candle broke prior support; new lower high confirmed.
* Structure:
* Failed to reclaim 597, now acting as local resistance
* Next major demand zone: 587
* Trendline from the recent highs shows lower highs; bearish continuation forming.
* Volume: Bearish candle closed with strong volume — sign of institutional distribution.
⏱️ Intraday TA – 1H Chart
* CHoCH/BOS: Confirmed Break of Structure near 591, then a small rally attempt.
* Micro Supply Box: 596.5–597.5 — liquidity trap if SPY rallies into it.
* Support Zones:
* 593.35 / 594.00 – holding Friday’s bounce.
* If fails, expect sweep to 590 → 587.
* Trendline Pressure: Downward diagonal trendline rejecting every bounce. Unless a full candle close over 599.50, bias remains bearish.
⚠️ Geopolitical Risk – U.S. Bombs Iran
* News: U.S. launched targeted airstrikes on Iranian assets. Market now faces:
* Flight to safety: TLT, Gold, and USD may rise.
* Oil likely spikes — expect XLE and energy stocks to outperform.
* Tech and indexes may open with gap-down risk due to heightened geopolitical uncertainty.
* SPY Implications:
* Risk-off behavior could amplify sell-off under 590.
* Traders may hedge via VIX calls, gold futures, or SPY puts.
* Watch for VIX spikes or DXY rally as confirmation of sentiment shift.
🧠 Trade Scenarios – Monday June 24
🔻 Bearish Case (High-Probability if Geopolitical Escalates)
* Rejects at 596–597 zone (supply)
* Entry: ~595–596 rejection
* Targets: 590 → 587 → 572 (extreme GEX)
* Stop: 598.5–599.2 above supply box
🔼 Bullish Case (If Market Shakes Off Iran Tension)
* Breaks over 597.5, closes above 599.5 (CHoCH confirmation)
* Entry: 598–599 breakout
* Targets: 602 → 604.5 (2nd Call Wall)
* Stop: 596.5
📌 My Thoughts:
SPY is sitting on a knife’s edge. GEX is screaming downside, and now geopolitical risk adds another layer of pressure. Monday could open with volatility spikes, and if the market gaps down under 590, it might cascade to 587 fast.
Only a reclaim above 599.5 invalidates the bearish structure — and even then, macro headlines might limit upside. Stay nimble. Hedge if holding longs.
🧭 Action Plan for Monday:
* Scalpers: Watch the 596–597 rejection zone — quick puts may work well.
* Swing traders: Use HVL 590 as pivot. Lose it? Target 587.
* Hedgers: VIX calls or GLD may provide cushion.
* Macro watchers: Monitor oil (USO), DXY, and bonds (TLT) for risk-on/off cues.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk carefully.
🔍 GEX & Options Sentiment Overview:
From the daily GEX chart:
* Key Gamma Levels:
* 📍Call Walls: 597 → 602 (supply zones), strong resistance.
* 📍Put Walls: 590 → 587 → 572, significant gamma exposure to the downside.
* High Volatility Zone (HVL) at 590 – a trigger level; under this, the market may accelerate downside toward 587 and even 572.
* GEX Summary:
* PUTS: 80.4% dominance
* GEX Net: 🔴 extremely negative
* IVR 23.3, still on the lower side but rising
* Implication: Dealers are hedging to the downside. Gamma exposure creates risk of accelerated selloff below 590.
📊 Technical Analysis – Daily (1D)
* Price: 594.28 (as of Friday close)
* Trend: Daily candle broke prior support; new lower high confirmed.
* Structure:
* Failed to reclaim 597, now acting as local resistance
* Next major demand zone: 587
* Trendline from the recent highs shows lower highs; bearish continuation forming.
* Volume: Bearish candle closed with strong volume — sign of institutional distribution.
⏱️ Intraday TA – 1H Chart
* CHoCH/BOS: Confirmed Break of Structure near 591, then a small rally attempt.
* Micro Supply Box: 596.5–597.5 — liquidity trap if SPY rallies into it.
* Support Zones:
* 593.35 / 594.00 – holding Friday’s bounce.
* If fails, expect sweep to 590 → 587.
* Trendline Pressure: Downward diagonal trendline rejecting every bounce. Unless a full candle close over 599.50, bias remains bearish.
⚠️ Geopolitical Risk – U.S. Bombs Iran
* News: U.S. launched targeted airstrikes on Iranian assets. Market now faces:
* Flight to safety: TLT, Gold, and USD may rise.
* Oil likely spikes — expect XLE and energy stocks to outperform.
* Tech and indexes may open with gap-down risk due to heightened geopolitical uncertainty.
* SPY Implications:
* Risk-off behavior could amplify sell-off under 590.
* Traders may hedge via VIX calls, gold futures, or SPY puts.
* Watch for VIX spikes or DXY rally as confirmation of sentiment shift.
🧠 Trade Scenarios – Monday June 24
🔻 Bearish Case (High-Probability if Geopolitical Escalates)
* Rejects at 596–597 zone (supply)
* Entry: ~595–596 rejection
* Targets: 590 → 587 → 572 (extreme GEX)
* Stop: 598.5–599.2 above supply box
🔼 Bullish Case (If Market Shakes Off Iran Tension)
* Breaks over 597.5, closes above 599.5 (CHoCH confirmation)
* Entry: 598–599 breakout
* Targets: 602 → 604.5 (2nd Call Wall)
* Stop: 596.5
📌 My Thoughts:
SPY is sitting on a knife’s edge. GEX is screaming downside, and now geopolitical risk adds another layer of pressure. Monday could open with volatility spikes, and if the market gaps down under 590, it might cascade to 587 fast.
Only a reclaim above 599.5 invalidates the bearish structure — and even then, macro headlines might limit upside. Stay nimble. Hedge if holding longs.
🧭 Action Plan for Monday:
* Scalpers: Watch the 596–597 rejection zone — quick puts may work well.
* Swing traders: Use HVL 590 as pivot. Lose it? Target 587.
* Hedgers: VIX calls or GLD may provide cushion.
* Macro watchers: Monitor oil (USO), DXY, and bonds (TLT) for risk-on/off cues.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk carefully.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.