Since its the last trading day of the year, I figured I will post my thoughts going into tomorrow.
Recap:
We took off the 99% target at 383.50s.
No longer shall I doubt this target, lol. Ridiculous.
That said, I did know enough to get long today so was fine :-).
Still annoying.
While sellers are dominating, both are sub-14 SMA of volume, so nothing really convincing. Most timeframes are also unconvincing.
Tomorrow:
Let me just tell you:
76% chance this tanks to 377 range.
74% chance that the DOW (DIA) tanks to 329 range.
And if we don't take those out tomrorow, its kind of likely we will be seeing them into the January open.
That's really all you need to know.
Where did I get these numbers?
Well, I haven't done a cartoon reference for a while, so this.
Was my jam in my masters ;).
Gaps:
Gaps everywhere. The TP actually corresponds to a bearish gap, but I mean, take your pick and/or guess if any of these will be filled tomorrow.
ES1! & YM1!:
Some upside is possible tonight. Specifically, seeing YM1! backtrack up to 33369. Which means that some comparable upside could be expected on ES1! as well.
Am I playing these? Absolutely not. The chart seems pretty unstable, tbh.
My position:
I entered short on Wednesday and scaled in more today when we hit that 99% target at 383.
Is upside possible tomorrow?
Yes. This type of chart pattern and setup have led to bullish break-ups before. But we have some psychological things working against a bullish thesis. I.e., end of year, leading into a year forecasted to be pretty doom and gloom (lingering recession fears, etc.) and an index that is quick to sell off and has burdensome stocks that continue to just capitulate. That said, it is absolutely possible we see this rally into the EOY but it just is not characteristic of end of year PA generally, so I am not holding out too much hope for one when the year has been worse than a "general, characteristic year". Plus we have some pretty bearish odds going on for tomorrow.
Plan for tomorrow:
No day trading planned despite the fact that this could do a pretty big sell.
If this sells, I will try to up my position size before it gets too low.
If it rallies, I will continue to add to a short position.
If this rallies, my immediate target would be 387. Again, wouldn't play it tomorrow, just because it is quite an unstable looking chart. But I would be watching for that TP.
My thoughts!
Best of luck everyone!
Recap:
We took off the 99% target at 383.50s.
No longer shall I doubt this target, lol. Ridiculous.
That said, I did know enough to get long today so was fine :-).
Still annoying.
While sellers are dominating, both are sub-14 SMA of volume, so nothing really convincing. Most timeframes are also unconvincing.
Tomorrow:
Let me just tell you:
76% chance this tanks to 377 range.
74% chance that the DOW (DIA) tanks to 329 range.
And if we don't take those out tomrorow, its kind of likely we will be seeing them into the January open.
That's really all you need to know.
Where did I get these numbers?
Well, I haven't done a cartoon reference for a while, so this.
Was my jam in my masters ;).
Gaps:
Gaps everywhere. The TP actually corresponds to a bearish gap, but I mean, take your pick and/or guess if any of these will be filled tomorrow.
ES1! & YM1!:
Some upside is possible tonight. Specifically, seeing YM1! backtrack up to 33369. Which means that some comparable upside could be expected on ES1! as well.
Am I playing these? Absolutely not. The chart seems pretty unstable, tbh.
My position:
I entered short on Wednesday and scaled in more today when we hit that 99% target at 383.
Is upside possible tomorrow?
Yes. This type of chart pattern and setup have led to bullish break-ups before. But we have some psychological things working against a bullish thesis. I.e., end of year, leading into a year forecasted to be pretty doom and gloom (lingering recession fears, etc.) and an index that is quick to sell off and has burdensome stocks that continue to just capitulate. That said, it is absolutely possible we see this rally into the EOY but it just is not characteristic of end of year PA generally, so I am not holding out too much hope for one when the year has been worse than a "general, characteristic year". Plus we have some pretty bearish odds going on for tomorrow.
Plan for tomorrow:
No day trading planned despite the fact that this could do a pretty big sell.
If this sells, I will try to up my position size before it gets too low.
If it rallies, I will continue to add to a short position.
If this rallies, my immediate target would be 387. Again, wouldn't play it tomorrow, just because it is quite an unstable looking chart. But I would be watching for that TP.
My thoughts!
Best of luck everyone!
Note
As expected, YM reached and rejected of 33369.
It is forming somewhat of a bullish bird pattern.
If this breaks up, it is possible that it goes to the green box to create a double top. If it breaks out of that green box to the upside, then all bets are off.
Inversely, we could just tank here with this 33369 rejection.
Don't care either way as I am short term positionless (my short position on SPY is a longer term game plan and not a conventional "swing" trade).
Will keep you posted if I see anything interesting develop in the charts!
Note
Great day! While SPY didn't quite hit the 377 range on the dot, it came so close, I am calling this successful (this was a new thing I was trying out and it actually worked fantastic)!
I did exit my shorts today despite the fact that this was for a longer term position. Reason being, I foresee upside coming in the new year, at least to kick it off. The DOW (DIA) will likely see >332 on Tuesday and there should be some initial bullishness to kick off the year.
Otherwise, those are my immediate thoughts.
I hope you all had a great day and I will likely resume my normal weekly posts as of Monday.
I also have a end of year thing I will be posting later in the day with a little activity for people, so stay tuned! =-).
Safe trades everyone!
Easter sale starts April 18th for 50% off!
Get:
- Live Updates,
- Discord access,
- Access to my Proprietary Merlin Software,
- Access to premium indicators,
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Get:
- Live Updates,
- Discord access,
- Access to my Proprietary Merlin Software,
- Access to premium indicators,
patreon.com/steversteves
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Easter sale starts April 18th for 50% off!
Get:
- Live Updates,
- Discord access,
- Access to my Proprietary Merlin Software,
- Access to premium indicators,
patreon.com/steversteves
Get:
- Live Updates,
- Discord access,
- Access to my Proprietary Merlin Software,
- Access to premium indicators,
patreon.com/steversteves
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.