SPY Breaks Out of Gamma Box! Will IT Trigger a Trend Day or Fade Setup? 🚀📉
🔍 Chart Overview
* Timeframes: 1H (GEX + key zones), 15M (Price action + SMC).
* Price: $601.65 at close.
* SPY broke above 600, a key GEX resistance and call wall area, and is pushing into a zone with less options resistance.
📊 GEX + Options Sentiment
* 601–602 Zone: Highest positive NET GEX, aligned with CALL wall and resistance—where market makers may start to hedge against upside.
* 604–606: Next upside liquidity zone; low GEX, meaning little dealer resistance = gamma vacuum potential.
* IVR: 21.2 (elevated slightly).
* Put Positioning: 78.2% heavy skew—market still defensively positioned.
* GEX Shift: Bullish; breakout above 599–600 flips structure toward 604 as target.
📐 Smart Money Concepts (15M Chart)
* CHoCH → BOS Confirmed: Trend structure flipped bullish today.
* SPY rallied off demand at 591.90 (old support/OB) with increasing volume.
* Currently tapping into minor supply zone (purple box) at 601.5–602.
📈 Key Technical Levels
* Support:
* 599.00 (GEX flip zone)
* 596.41 (FVG support)
* 594.28 (OB + FVG confluence)
* Resistance:
* 602.00 (GEX wall + supply)
* 604.85 (GEX extension zone)
📌 Scenarios
🟢 Bullish Play (Momentum Breakout)
* Entry: Above 602.20 (confirm breakout of supply)
* Targets: 604.50 → 606.00
* Stop: Below 600.40
* Confluence: Gamma vacuum + weak resistance = ideal for calls if IV remains controlled.
🔴 Bearish Play (Fade from GEX Wall)
* Entry: Rejects 602 with wicks + high volume reversal
* Targets: 599.50 → 597.00 → 594.50
* Stop: Above 602.50
* Confluence: Heavy puts suggest rally could be faded unless institutions step in.
💡 Game Plan
* Watch 602 rejection or acceptance—this will likely decide the rest of the week's direction.
* If accepted, it's likely a gamma squeeze to 604–606.
* If rejected, SPY may dip back to 599–597 to retest bullish structure.
🎯 Options Strategy
* Bullish: Weekly 602C or 604C if breakout confirmed.
* Bearish: 600P for fade/rejection plays. Higher risk due to squeeze potential—tight stops.
🧠 Final Thoughts
SPY is at a pivotal level. The breakout from 599 suggests bulls in control, but we're now at Gamma resistance. Keep tight risk if playing calls above 602. The upside is open—but only if dealers lose control.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk before trading.
🔍 Chart Overview
* Timeframes: 1H (GEX + key zones), 15M (Price action + SMC).
* Price: $601.65 at close.
* SPY broke above 600, a key GEX resistance and call wall area, and is pushing into a zone with less options resistance.
📊 GEX + Options Sentiment
* 601–602 Zone: Highest positive NET GEX, aligned with CALL wall and resistance—where market makers may start to hedge against upside.
* 604–606: Next upside liquidity zone; low GEX, meaning little dealer resistance = gamma vacuum potential.
* IVR: 21.2 (elevated slightly).
* Put Positioning: 78.2% heavy skew—market still defensively positioned.
* GEX Shift: Bullish; breakout above 599–600 flips structure toward 604 as target.
📐 Smart Money Concepts (15M Chart)
* CHoCH → BOS Confirmed: Trend structure flipped bullish today.
* SPY rallied off demand at 591.90 (old support/OB) with increasing volume.
* Currently tapping into minor supply zone (purple box) at 601.5–602.
📈 Key Technical Levels
* Support:
* 599.00 (GEX flip zone)
* 596.41 (FVG support)
* 594.28 (OB + FVG confluence)
* Resistance:
* 602.00 (GEX wall + supply)
* 604.85 (GEX extension zone)
📌 Scenarios
🟢 Bullish Play (Momentum Breakout)
* Entry: Above 602.20 (confirm breakout of supply)
* Targets: 604.50 → 606.00
* Stop: Below 600.40
* Confluence: Gamma vacuum + weak resistance = ideal for calls if IV remains controlled.
🔴 Bearish Play (Fade from GEX Wall)
* Entry: Rejects 602 with wicks + high volume reversal
* Targets: 599.50 → 597.00 → 594.50
* Stop: Above 602.50
* Confluence: Heavy puts suggest rally could be faded unless institutions step in.
💡 Game Plan
* Watch 602 rejection or acceptance—this will likely decide the rest of the week's direction.
* If accepted, it's likely a gamma squeeze to 604–606.
* If rejected, SPY may dip back to 599–597 to retest bullish structure.
🎯 Options Strategy
* Bullish: Weekly 602C or 604C if breakout confirmed.
* Bearish: 600P for fade/rejection plays. Higher risk due to squeeze potential—tight stops.
🧠 Final Thoughts
SPY is at a pivotal level. The breakout from 599 suggests bulls in control, but we're now at Gamma resistance. Keep tight risk if playing calls above 602. The upside is open—but only if dealers lose control.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk before trading.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.