🔮 Weekly 
SPY / 
SPX Scenarios for August 25 – 29, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Themes
Jackson Hole aftermath 🏔️
Powell’s Friday keynote sets the tone. Markets will trade on whether he opened the door to a September cut or stuck to a cautious stance. Expect chop inSPY, 
TLT, 
DXY as traders recalibrate.
Inflation & Jobs 🔥💼
Fresh PCE inflation and jobless claims anchor the week. Any upside surprise revives “higher-for-longer”; softness = fuel for cut odds.
Retail earnings wrap 🛒
With $WMT/$TGT/
HD behind us, discounters and specialty retailers close the season. XRT stays a barometer of consumer resilience.
Housing & confidence 🏠📉
Pending Home Sales + Conference Board Confidence will test sentiment in an affordability squeeze backdrop. WatchXHB, $XLY.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
📅 Monday, Aug 25
Chicago Fed National Activity Index (8:30 AM) – broad growth pulse.
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey (10:30 AM) – regional check.
📅 Tuesday, Aug 26
Durable Goods Orders (8:30 AM) – capex signal; core ex-transport key.
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey (10:00 AM) – factory health in Mid-Atlantic.
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index (9:00 AM) – housing momentum.
Conference Board Consumer Confidence (10:00 AM) – labor intentions, rate sentiment.
📅 Wednesday, Aug 27
MBA Mortgage Applications (7:00 AM) – weekly mortgage pulse.
Advance Economic Indicators (8:30 AM) – trade, inventories, wholesale.
Pending Home Sales (10:00 AM) – affordability and turnover test.
Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 AM) – $CL_F/
XLE driver.
📅 Thursday, Aug 28
Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM) – labor cooling watch.
GDP (2nd Estimate, Q2) (8:30 AM) – growth momentum, revisions matter.
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (11:00 AM) – regional survey.
📅 Friday, Aug 29
PCE Price Index (Jul, 8:30 AM) – Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
Personal Income & Outlays (8:30 AM) – consumer demand and savings rates.
Chicago PMI (9:45 AM) – manufacturing signal ahead of ISM next week.
UMich Consumer Sentiment (Final, 10:00 AM) – inflation expectations track.
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #SPY #SPX #Fed #PCE #GDP #Housing #Confidence #Energy #Bonds #Dollar
SPY / SPX Scenarios for August 25 – 29, 2025 🔮🌍 Market-Moving Themes
Jackson Hole aftermath 🏔️
Powell’s Friday keynote sets the tone. Markets will trade on whether he opened the door to a September cut or stuck to a cautious stance. Expect chop in
SPY, TLT, DXY as traders recalibrate.Inflation & Jobs 🔥💼
Fresh PCE inflation and jobless claims anchor the week. Any upside surprise revives “higher-for-longer”; softness = fuel for cut odds.
Retail earnings wrap 🛒
With $WMT/$TGT/
HD behind us, discounters and specialty retailers close the season. XRT stays a barometer of consumer resilience.Housing & confidence 🏠📉
Pending Home Sales + Conference Board Confidence will test sentiment in an affordability squeeze backdrop. Watch
XHB, $XLY.📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
📅 Monday, Aug 25
Chicago Fed National Activity Index (8:30 AM) – broad growth pulse.
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey (10:30 AM) – regional check.
📅 Tuesday, Aug 26
Durable Goods Orders (8:30 AM) – capex signal; core ex-transport key.
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey (10:00 AM) – factory health in Mid-Atlantic.
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index (9:00 AM) – housing momentum.
Conference Board Consumer Confidence (10:00 AM) – labor intentions, rate sentiment.
📅 Wednesday, Aug 27
MBA Mortgage Applications (7:00 AM) – weekly mortgage pulse.
Advance Economic Indicators (8:30 AM) – trade, inventories, wholesale.
Pending Home Sales (10:00 AM) – affordability and turnover test.
Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 AM) – $CL_F/
XLE driver.📅 Thursday, Aug 28
Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM) – labor cooling watch.
GDP (2nd Estimate, Q2) (8:30 AM) – growth momentum, revisions matter.
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (11:00 AM) – regional survey.
📅 Friday, Aug 29
PCE Price Index (Jul, 8:30 AM) – Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
Personal Income & Outlays (8:30 AM) – consumer demand and savings rates.
Chicago PMI (9:45 AM) – manufacturing signal ahead of ISM next week.
UMich Consumer Sentiment (Final, 10:00 AM) – inflation expectations track.
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #SPY #SPX #Fed #PCE #GDP #Housing #Confidence #Energy #Bonds #Dollar
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Disclaimer
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.