Updated

SPY Another Wedgie?

Looks to me like it's forming another wedge, FAANG stocks and Nasdaq look weak.

I think we get 2 -3 day drop again next week, maybe all the way to $270. Not going to short anything though, will wait for the dip to buy, proving to be a much easier strategy considering they'll pump the krap out of the market if a China deal gets done.

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Though the market looks weak, it's too risky to short anything over a long weekend especially since they might be close to a China deal. No compelling reason to open a new long position either considering I just drew up a wedge. Done watching the market for the day. Wish I had held XLF calls a bit longer, oh well.

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Figures we'd get some buying at the end of a Friday on 401k pay day. Keep in mind the end of day action is not indicative of what the market will do the next trading day. Yesterday is a great example. In any case, it hit the upper line of my wedgie, so if it gaps up Tuesday, the pattern is invalidated.

Went long on EWW (Mexico) calls, if the usual pattern holds it'll bounce back to $45. Also, the dollar rally should be over soon, there's no compelling reason for the dollar to rally further since there won't be another rate hike.

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My best guess is that they announce a China deal at the end of next week (or earlier), and we get a final exhaustion gap at that point. Until then, no short positions except earnings. Would not surprise me if it hit the Jan 2018 high of 286.6, seems like it's trying to replay the Aug 2017 to Jan 2018 rally in 2 months, lol.

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Market looks weak this afternoon, wedge is still valid. However, I am still not shorting anything, could be yet another bear trap.

Flipped my EWW calls this morning, bought LULU calls. Aside from my long term 401k positions in STM, CIEN, NOK, INSG and some Fidelity ContraFund that is all I'm holding. We'll see what happens, maybe this is finally the top.

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Considering that the market is pumping FAANG stocks once again, if there's an index to short, it looks like the DOW. Looks topped out with a bunch of components looking to go down, but hen again who really knows?

That and TSLA.

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Futures are flat and I'm going to sleep. Let's see if the wedge idea is valid tomorrow, if not then we're still looking at a melt up channel.

Seems like they turned the computerz off this week, there hasn't been much movement in futurez at all. Guess nobody wants to be caught short if the China trade deal gets done.

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Flipped the LULU calls for $1k profit, should have seen the GM gap fill move yesterday, oh well.

Don't see any compelling plays this morning, will wait and see.

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Still looking wedgie today, chart looks to be a repeat of last week where it tanked on Thursday but the VIX is down big indicating that we may just hang here for a few days. Contradictory indicators make for bad trading.

LULU went up this morning, TSLA went down, and DJI is flat. So at least all of my predictions from yesterday were correct. Got nothing going today besides watching CIEN and STM in my 401k.

Not a really good play if the market goes down, but FDX looks like it wants to close the gap.

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Lol, whipsaw! If the market finishes here near the high, I'm buying XLF weekly calls. I bet they pump futures tonight because it's going to be easier to squeeze shorts than to cause a selloff. (Only if SPY finishes above 278.4)

Looks like they're gonna squeeze out the bears to get to $280, and then some. Market is getting hilariously pumptarded.

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Not sure what happened in the last 15 minutes, but the computers started pumping futures. Looks like an up day tomorrow unless Euro stocks tank overnight.

Let's see if I make money on those XLF calls...

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Futures reversed overnight, wedge obviously valid, sold my XLF calls for a case of beer profit in the morning. Got lucky it went green for a few minutes.

Should have paid more attention to the charts than the "good news", I would have bought EWZ weekly puts yesterday afternoon, oh well. Sucks when you have it charted correctly and still bet the wrong way, lol. At least I didn't lose money.

5G stocks and transports are still in the green, but I think this drop has another leg. Not buying the dip until tomorrow or Monday. Don't see any compelling mid day trades.

hungry_hippo

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hungry_hippo