Hello everyone,
So I took a break from posting on and trading SPY. To be honest, I just had SPY burnout. So last week I did absolutely no analysis on it and I just did not trade it at all, favoring BA and QQQ over SPY.
Anyone who was following me over in those less frequented, neck of the woods on Tradingview know that all of my price targets were hit on BA and QQQ. So if you followed those trades with me, congrats.
Anyway, I have nothing to recap really because I did not do an analysis on SPY last week, I didn't run any projections, plot anything or do anything with it, so really I have nothing to say about what it did this past week except that it was bullish (yet surprise, surprise, people kept screaming short, lol. Smh.)
Otherwise, going into next week the clear play for Monday seems to actually be SPY. So far, I have run assessments on BA, QQQ, SPY and IWM. General consensus, with the exception of BA and QQQ, is bearishness should prevail next week, but we should be kicking the week off with a bullish start. Now I say this with extreme caution because the results are a little wonky and so we need to get into it.
So across the board, except with BA, we are looking at likely gapping up into Monday (actually BA is apparently gapping up too). On the probability side for the week as a whole, there is a favouring of 'general' bearishness. Meaning that, it terms of chance alone, SPY should have an easier time going down than going up.
I have tired to show this pictographically with the chart above, shading in the areas which would be "probability resistance". Green meaning it will have an easier time reaching, orange meaning it will experience some resistance and red being extreme resistance. You see there is more "moderate" resistance to the downside, but more "hard resistance" to the upside (again these are all based on mathematical assessments). But it doesn't mean that SPY cannot shoot through these resistance areas one way or another. Its juts chance favours a slight move to the upside and then a move to the downside (or inversely, just consolidating in the middle). The trading range for next week is 395 - 415
In terms of Monday, there is a favouring of bullishness. TP for upside is 409. We should ideally see rejection between 409 and 410. If not, the next TP would be 411 and then 413-415 (top of range).
At the very least I would expect this to reject 409-410 and come back down to 400 - 403. SPY hitting 403 is THE HIGHEST probability trade right now for next week So keep this in mind. We have CPI results which will cause massive nonsense, huge swings and just a general disaster. Generally the CPI results are meaningless, they just serve as the "catalyst" for the market to do whatever it wants to do. I am not sure what that is right now. I don't like how "neutral" the probabilities are in this sense. While there is a favouring of downside, it is very close and VERY tight. Its not OVERLY convincing (its slightly more convincing on IWM which makes me think that the market should follow linearly between these ETFs). And I am just generally concerned because the market, including SPY, has shown a general reluctance to go down. I do know it will go down and when it does it will be swift and unexpected. I just think that as long as all the genius traders out there keep screaming short from the rooftops, its the modus operandi of the market to ensure these people pay for their nonsense.
Anyway, summary:
- Initial TP 409 then
- TP 403 then 400
- Personal bias is neutral
- Probability bias is bearish with initial bullishness expected
- CPI results will be a catalyst one way or the other, if we are going up, look for a TP of 413 then 415. If we are going down look for a TP of 396 then 395 (bottom of the range) and likely lower. You will know which direction the market wants after CPI is released, so if you want to be cautious, just wait until it is released (my plan).
That's it, my thoughts and opinions. Trade safe and let me know your comments, critiques and questions below!
So I took a break from posting on and trading SPY. To be honest, I just had SPY burnout. So last week I did absolutely no analysis on it and I just did not trade it at all, favoring BA and QQQ over SPY.
Anyone who was following me over in those less frequented, neck of the woods on Tradingview know that all of my price targets were hit on BA and QQQ. So if you followed those trades with me, congrats.
Anyway, I have nothing to recap really because I did not do an analysis on SPY last week, I didn't run any projections, plot anything or do anything with it, so really I have nothing to say about what it did this past week except that it was bullish (yet surprise, surprise, people kept screaming short, lol. Smh.)
Otherwise, going into next week the clear play for Monday seems to actually be SPY. So far, I have run assessments on BA, QQQ, SPY and IWM. General consensus, with the exception of BA and QQQ, is bearishness should prevail next week, but we should be kicking the week off with a bullish start. Now I say this with extreme caution because the results are a little wonky and so we need to get into it.
So across the board, except with BA, we are looking at likely gapping up into Monday (actually BA is apparently gapping up too). On the probability side for the week as a whole, there is a favouring of 'general' bearishness. Meaning that, it terms of chance alone, SPY should have an easier time going down than going up.
I have tired to show this pictographically with the chart above, shading in the areas which would be "probability resistance". Green meaning it will have an easier time reaching, orange meaning it will experience some resistance and red being extreme resistance. You see there is more "moderate" resistance to the downside, but more "hard resistance" to the upside (again these are all based on mathematical assessments). But it doesn't mean that SPY cannot shoot through these resistance areas one way or another. Its juts chance favours a slight move to the upside and then a move to the downside (or inversely, just consolidating in the middle). The trading range for next week is 395 - 415
In terms of Monday, there is a favouring of bullishness. TP for upside is 409. We should ideally see rejection between 409 and 410. If not, the next TP would be 411 and then 413-415 (top of range).
At the very least I would expect this to reject 409-410 and come back down to 400 - 403. SPY hitting 403 is THE HIGHEST probability trade right now for next week So keep this in mind. We have CPI results which will cause massive nonsense, huge swings and just a general disaster. Generally the CPI results are meaningless, they just serve as the "catalyst" for the market to do whatever it wants to do. I am not sure what that is right now. I don't like how "neutral" the probabilities are in this sense. While there is a favouring of downside, it is very close and VERY tight. Its not OVERLY convincing (its slightly more convincing on IWM which makes me think that the market should follow linearly between these ETFs). And I am just generally concerned because the market, including SPY, has shown a general reluctance to go down. I do know it will go down and when it does it will be swift and unexpected. I just think that as long as all the genius traders out there keep screaming short from the rooftops, its the modus operandi of the market to ensure these people pay for their nonsense.
Anyway, summary:
- Initial TP 409 then
- TP 403 then 400
- Personal bias is neutral
- Probability bias is bearish with initial bullishness expected
- CPI results will be a catalyst one way or the other, if we are going up, look for a TP of 413 then 415. If we are going down look for a TP of 396 then 395 (bottom of the range) and likely lower. You will know which direction the market wants after CPI is released, so if you want to be cautious, just wait until it is released (my plan).
That's it, my thoughts and opinions. Trade safe and let me know your comments, critiques and questions below!
Get:
- Live Updates,
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Now on X!
- Live Updates,
- Discord access,
- Access to my Proprietary Merlin Software,
- Access to premium indicators,
patreon.com/steversteves
Now on X!
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Get:
- Live Updates,
- Discord access,
- Access to my Proprietary Merlin Software,
- Access to premium indicators,
patreon.com/steversteves
Now on X!
- Live Updates,
- Discord access,
- Access to my Proprietary Merlin Software,
- Access to premium indicators,
patreon.com/steversteves
Now on X!
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.