📉 SPY Daily Chart Trading Plan — May 2025
Thesis:
Price has returned to the exact level ($594.20) where the February impulse breakdown began. This zone is acting as a Lower High rejection within a broader bearish structure. A clean rejection here opens the door to multiple inefficiency fills below.
🔍 Structure Breakdown:
Feb High (ATH): $613.23
Feb Open: $592.67
Feb Close (last green candle before impulse): $594.20
Current Price: $594.20
Marked LH: $592.50
This is a rally back into rejection, not strength.
📉 Key Zones & Gaps:
🔺 Gap Supply: $566.48 – $578.50
🔺 Wick Gap: $558 – $566 → Needs a full-body candle to initiate fill
🟥 FVG (4/22): $528 – $541.52
🧱 Major Support: $481.80
🧠 Trade Plan:
Short Entry 1 (Confirmation-Based):
🔻 Red candle rejection under $592.50 = starter short
🔻 Watch RSI and MACD for momentum fade
Short Entry 2 (Gap Breach):
🔻 If $578 is broken and retested → scale in
🔻 Gap fill expected quickly once triggered
Short Entry 3 (Wick Gap):
🔻 Body close through $558 = last add
🔻 Sets up for final flush to FVG
🎯 Targets:
$578.50 → $566.48 (Gap Fill)
$558 → $541.52 (Wick Gap & FVG Top)
$528 – $530 (FVG Close)
$481.80 (Long-Term Panic Target)
❌ Invalidation:
Daily close > $595.50 = Pause thesis
Weekly close > $600 = Structural shift, short squeeze zone
🧠 Final Thoughts:
This isn’t just a gap fill play — it’s a structural fade from a lower high back into memory. The Feb impulse wave left behind layers of inefficiency, and price just tapped the origin of the breakdown.
Momentum is peaking. If this is a trap, the downside should begin immediately.
Let the chart prove it.
Thesis:
Price has returned to the exact level ($594.20) where the February impulse breakdown began. This zone is acting as a Lower High rejection within a broader bearish structure. A clean rejection here opens the door to multiple inefficiency fills below.
🔍 Structure Breakdown:
Feb High (ATH): $613.23
Feb Open: $592.67
Feb Close (last green candle before impulse): $594.20
Current Price: $594.20
Marked LH: $592.50
This is a rally back into rejection, not strength.
📉 Key Zones & Gaps:
🔺 Gap Supply: $566.48 – $578.50
🔺 Wick Gap: $558 – $566 → Needs a full-body candle to initiate fill
🟥 FVG (4/22): $528 – $541.52
🧱 Major Support: $481.80
🧠 Trade Plan:
Short Entry 1 (Confirmation-Based):
🔻 Red candle rejection under $592.50 = starter short
🔻 Watch RSI and MACD for momentum fade
Short Entry 2 (Gap Breach):
🔻 If $578 is broken and retested → scale in
🔻 Gap fill expected quickly once triggered
Short Entry 3 (Wick Gap):
🔻 Body close through $558 = last add
🔻 Sets up for final flush to FVG
🎯 Targets:
$578.50 → $566.48 (Gap Fill)
$558 → $541.52 (Wick Gap & FVG Top)
$528 – $530 (FVG Close)
$481.80 (Long-Term Panic Target)
❌ Invalidation:
Daily close > $595.50 = Pause thesis
Weekly close > $600 = Structural shift, short squeeze zone
🧠 Final Thoughts:
This isn’t just a gap fill play — it’s a structural fade from a lower high back into memory. The Feb impulse wave left behind layers of inefficiency, and price just tapped the origin of the breakdown.
Momentum is peaking. If this is a trap, the downside should begin immediately.
Let the chart prove it.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.