Okay, so for those who missed my live stream, I figured I would do a written summary of what you need to know about SPY.
Today was massively disappointing. I mean, I count my blessings I suppose. I successfully day traded SPY and IWM with no stop outs *knock on wood*. Got mah mojo back! haha
But SPY's behavior was a massive disappointment. Like seriously. The probs had me so hot and bothered, I was all like.......
But alas. Complete and utter let down.
And looking at the probs for tomorrow just lead to more confusion and uncertainty. So let's get into what I am watching, what I am doing, what we need to look for and what to expect.
Probs for tomorrow:
There is honestly far too much uncertainty tomorrow unfortunately.
Simple bullish to bearish probs using math targets as reference yield a bullish to bearish ratio of 4:1 (4 Rocket emojis and 1 crashing rocket).
The advanced prob assessment is exactly inverse, 4 bears to 1 bull.
And get this, this one is the kicker. The prob of a gap up vs gap down? Yeah, its 1:1. LOL!
Seriously.
The actual ratio is 3:3 favouring gap up vs gap down.
Oh SPY, only you *SMH*.
What to be on the lookout for?
So, its unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on perspective) far too early to call time of death on this. Because while SPY is letting us down in terms of its anticlimactic presentation, its still holding its key pivotal levels and math ranges. So, we had a fakeout below 393 (the lowest low calculated by the regression trend) which lead to a dramatic pop back. (By the way, the fakeouts are like, so common that I constantly play them to the opposite. I went in aggressive long on that fake out with 0 DTES to play the snap back. Was pretty great. SPY can be pretty predictable).
We would need to see a break and hold below 393 to really affirm bearishness, IMO. A break of 390 and hold is really putting the nail in the coffin.
But we haven't seen any of this. SPY just remained range bound, hitting its high and low real time intra-day targets, but respecting key levels.
As well, SPY's 99% target is also a massive let down. You can see it in the chart above (yellow line). It took it off the table really quickly. DIA and IWM as well. Just really massive letdowns as far as the eye can see.
What to do:
Unfortunately, this was far too choppy for me to feel confident swinging. However, the probs are still in effect, they aren't invalidated until the key math levels are broken, which has not happened. This means you need to be careful taking any real position. Because that bullishness is still on the table, we can see SPY just rally out of nowhere without warning. If you are taking any type of swing position, be sure to set tight stops. But really, unless you are playing to the straddle side, really I don't think SPY is worth swinging here.
My rule is, when in doubt, stay out. That leads me to my next point of what to do:
What worked for me today is following my rules. So be sure you are following your rules. I was patient with entries. Did not over-trade and knew when to call time of death on day trading for the day because of the chop and indecision.
Diversify! I have touched on this before, but I will touch on it again. Diversification is not only for the savvy long term investor. Its also for the savvy day trader. Have a back pocket go to that is unrelated to your primarily traded stock. Because my most traded stocks are IWM and SPY, my back pocket stocks are XOM, XLE (index) and BA. All 3 are un-related to SPY and all 3 trade separately from each other and SPY (well except XOM and XLE, they trade identical of course). And while things are kind of cloudy on SPY for tomorrow, things are much clearer for BA and XLE.
I think that's pretty much it. Its very much a disappointing post, I know. I am really disappointed by this anticlimactic week thus far. But you know, its still young. So maybe we will have some curve balls thrown at us.
Trade safe everyone! And let me know your thoughts!
Today was massively disappointing. I mean, I count my blessings I suppose. I successfully day traded SPY and IWM with no stop outs *knock on wood*. Got mah mojo back! haha
But SPY's behavior was a massive disappointment. Like seriously. The probs had me so hot and bothered, I was all like.......
But alas. Complete and utter let down.
And looking at the probs for tomorrow just lead to more confusion and uncertainty. So let's get into what I am watching, what I am doing, what we need to look for and what to expect.
Probs for tomorrow:
There is honestly far too much uncertainty tomorrow unfortunately.
Simple bullish to bearish probs using math targets as reference yield a bullish to bearish ratio of 4:1 (4 Rocket emojis and 1 crashing rocket).
The advanced prob assessment is exactly inverse, 4 bears to 1 bull.
And get this, this one is the kicker. The prob of a gap up vs gap down? Yeah, its 1:1. LOL!
Seriously.
The actual ratio is 3:3 favouring gap up vs gap down.
Oh SPY, only you *SMH*.
What to be on the lookout for?
So, its unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on perspective) far too early to call time of death on this. Because while SPY is letting us down in terms of its anticlimactic presentation, its still holding its key pivotal levels and math ranges. So, we had a fakeout below 393 (the lowest low calculated by the regression trend) which lead to a dramatic pop back. (By the way, the fakeouts are like, so common that I constantly play them to the opposite. I went in aggressive long on that fake out with 0 DTES to play the snap back. Was pretty great. SPY can be pretty predictable).
We would need to see a break and hold below 393 to really affirm bearishness, IMO. A break of 390 and hold is really putting the nail in the coffin.
But we haven't seen any of this. SPY just remained range bound, hitting its high and low real time intra-day targets, but respecting key levels.
As well, SPY's 99% target is also a massive let down. You can see it in the chart above (yellow line). It took it off the table really quickly. DIA and IWM as well. Just really massive letdowns as far as the eye can see.
What to do:
Unfortunately, this was far too choppy for me to feel confident swinging. However, the probs are still in effect, they aren't invalidated until the key math levels are broken, which has not happened. This means you need to be careful taking any real position. Because that bullishness is still on the table, we can see SPY just rally out of nowhere without warning. If you are taking any type of swing position, be sure to set tight stops. But really, unless you are playing to the straddle side, really I don't think SPY is worth swinging here.
My rule is, when in doubt, stay out. That leads me to my next point of what to do:
What worked for me today is following my rules. So be sure you are following your rules. I was patient with entries. Did not over-trade and knew when to call time of death on day trading for the day because of the chop and indecision.
Diversify! I have touched on this before, but I will touch on it again. Diversification is not only for the savvy long term investor. Its also for the savvy day trader. Have a back pocket go to that is unrelated to your primarily traded stock. Because my most traded stocks are IWM and SPY, my back pocket stocks are XOM, XLE (index) and BA. All 3 are un-related to SPY and all 3 trade separately from each other and SPY (well except XOM and XLE, they trade identical of course). And while things are kind of cloudy on SPY for tomorrow, things are much clearer for BA and XLE.
I think that's pretty much it. Its very much a disappointing post, I know. I am really disappointed by this anticlimactic week thus far. But you know, its still young. So maybe we will have some curve balls thrown at us.
Trade safe everyone! And let me know your thoughts!
Note
Well, well, well....Looks like it all worked out after all.
I guess its hard to argue with the high odds, but this market is so bipolar its hard to trust anything these days.
Hope you are all green and safe trades!
Easter sale starts April 18th for 50% off!
Get:
- Live Updates,
- Discord access,
- Access to my Proprietary Merlin Software,
- Access to premium indicators,
patreon.com/steversteves
Get:
- Live Updates,
- Discord access,
- Access to my Proprietary Merlin Software,
- Access to premium indicators,
patreon.com/steversteves
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Easter sale starts April 18th for 50% off!
Get:
- Live Updates,
- Discord access,
- Access to my Proprietary Merlin Software,
- Access to premium indicators,
patreon.com/steversteves
Get:
- Live Updates,
- Discord access,
- Access to my Proprietary Merlin Software,
- Access to premium indicators,
patreon.com/steversteves
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.