Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for August 12, 2025

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🔮 Nightly SPY / SPX Scenarios for August 12, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍

🇨🇳 Tariff Truce Extended 90 Days
The White House signed an order late Monday extending the U.S.–China tariff pause by 90 days—removing a key overnight risk into CPI day. Watch SPY / SPX, DXY, TLT for the reaction.

💵 Dollar Firms Into CPI
The dollar edged higher ahead of this morning’s inflation print as traders recalibrate rate-cut odds; stocks and long U.S. yields were choppy into the release.

🗓️ Quiet Tape, Big Catalyst
Futures and global markets stayed cautious into CPI; positioning is tight after Monday’s drift lower.

📊 Key Data Releases & Events (ET) 📊
📅 Tue, Aug 12

6:00 AM — NFIB Small Business Optimism (July).

8:30 AM — CPI (July) & Core CPI (official BLS release).

10:00 AM — Richmond Fed Pres. Tom Barkin speaks (Chicago; 9:00 CT).

10:30 AM — Kansas City Fed Pres. Jeff Schmid speaks (9:30 CT).

2:00 PM — Monthly U.S. Federal Budget (July) (Treasury MTS, 8th business day).

⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice.

📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #CPI #Fed #SPY #SPX #DXY #TLT

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