🔮 Weekly 
SPY / 
SPX Scenarios for July 14–18, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
⚖️ Powell Faces ‘Epic’ Trade‑Inflation Dilemma
Former Fed economists warn Chair Powell is navigating nearly unprecedented terrain: tariffs are pushing up prices even as the labor market cools. Striking a balance between inflation control and growth support remains a formidable challenge
📊 Tariff‑Driven Inflation May Peak This Week
June’s CPI is expected to show a 0.3% month-on-month increase, potentially lifting core inflation to ~2.7%—its highest level in 18 months. These data will heavily influence the Fed’s decision-making process
🏦 Big Bank Earnings Kick Off
Earnings season begins with JPMorgan (
JPM), Goldman Sachs (
GS), Wells Fargo (
WFC), and Citigroup ($C) reporting. Strong results could offset trade and inflation anxieties; expect volatility in financials
📈 Goldman Sees Broader S&P Rally
Goldman Sachs projects the S&P 500 to climb roughly 11% to 6,900 by mid‑2026, underpinned by firm earnings and expected Fed rate cuts. But warns that breadth remains narrow, increasing downside risk without robust participation
⚠️ Summer Volatility Risk Lingers
Deutsche Bank warns that summer’s low liquidity and the looming Aug 1 tariff re‑imposition deadline may spark sudden market turbulence—even amid bullish sentiment
📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊
📅 Monday, July 14
Quiet start—markets digest back-to-back CPI, tariffs, and clearing post‑earnings.
📅 Tuesday, July 15
8:30 AM ET – Consumer Price Index (June)
Watch for potential tariff impact in CPI; core inflation data are crucial.
8:30 AM ET – Core CPI (June)
10:00 AM ET – Empire State Manufacturing Survey (July)
Early view on Northeast factory trends.
📅 Wednesday, July 16
8:30 AM ET – Producer Price Index (June)
Wholesale inflation signals to validate CPI trends.
10:00 AM ET – Housing Starts & Building Permits (June)
📅 Thursday, July 17
8:30 AM ET – Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims
A gauge on labor-market resilience amid talks of cooling.
📅 Friday, July 18
10:00 AM ET – Federal Reserve Beige Book Release
Fed’s regional economic snapshot ahead of next FOMC.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This is for educational/informational use only—not financial advice. Consult a licensed professional before investing.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #tariffs #inflation #earnings #Fed #CPI #technicalanalysis
SPY / SPX Scenarios for July 14–18, 2025 🔮🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
⚖️ Powell Faces ‘Epic’ Trade‑Inflation Dilemma
Former Fed economists warn Chair Powell is navigating nearly unprecedented terrain: tariffs are pushing up prices even as the labor market cools. Striking a balance between inflation control and growth support remains a formidable challenge
📊 Tariff‑Driven Inflation May Peak This Week
June’s CPI is expected to show a 0.3% month-on-month increase, potentially lifting core inflation to ~2.7%—its highest level in 18 months. These data will heavily influence the Fed’s decision-making process
🏦 Big Bank Earnings Kick Off
Earnings season begins with JPMorgan (
JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Citigroup ($C) reporting. Strong results could offset trade and inflation anxieties; expect volatility in financials📈 Goldman Sees Broader S&P Rally
Goldman Sachs projects the S&P 500 to climb roughly 11% to 6,900 by mid‑2026, underpinned by firm earnings and expected Fed rate cuts. But warns that breadth remains narrow, increasing downside risk without robust participation
⚠️ Summer Volatility Risk Lingers
Deutsche Bank warns that summer’s low liquidity and the looming Aug 1 tariff re‑imposition deadline may spark sudden market turbulence—even amid bullish sentiment
📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊
📅 Monday, July 14
Quiet start—markets digest back-to-back CPI, tariffs, and clearing post‑earnings.
📅 Tuesday, July 15
8:30 AM ET – Consumer Price Index (June)
Watch for potential tariff impact in CPI; core inflation data are crucial.
8:30 AM ET – Core CPI (June)
10:00 AM ET – Empire State Manufacturing Survey (July)
Early view on Northeast factory trends.
📅 Wednesday, July 16
8:30 AM ET – Producer Price Index (June)
Wholesale inflation signals to validate CPI trends.
10:00 AM ET – Housing Starts & Building Permits (June)
📅 Thursday, July 17
8:30 AM ET – Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims
A gauge on labor-market resilience amid talks of cooling.
📅 Friday, July 18
10:00 AM ET – Federal Reserve Beige Book Release
Fed’s regional economic snapshot ahead of next FOMC.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This is for educational/informational use only—not financial advice. Consult a licensed professional before investing.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #tariffs #inflation #earnings #Fed #CPI #technicalanalysis
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Disclaimer
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.