SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Short

“From Mountain to Collapse: SPY Faces 630 Test”

111
📖 Crown Point Research
1️⃣ Date & Time

Date: 2nd September 2025
Time: Pre-Market | 09:15 PM IST

2️⃣ Fundamental News

No major Fed statements or policy updates overnight.

This move is purely structural: technical rejection at higher chambers + pre-payroll caution across markets.

3️⃣ Public Sentiment & Human Behaviour

Retail psychology: Traders treated $640–645 as breakout continuation zones, rushing in.

Institutional behaviour: Institutions sold into resistance, distributing supply near 645–650.

Social Signal: Headlines still project bullish “market strength,” but structure = pullback, not extension.

4️⃣ Current Structure

Macro

Resistance: 645–650

Support: 630–628

Stage: Macro = Mountain Maturity → Exhaustion.

Micro

Resistance: 640–642

Support: 630 → 628 zone.

Behaviour: Controlled pullbacks, failed rescues, collapse candles on intraday.

5️⃣ Projection

Primary Path (65%): Continuation lower to $630–628 support.

Alternate Path (25%): Bounce if $640 reclaimed, capped at $645.

Low Path (10%): Breakout above $650 only with rescue event (policy or global shock).

6️⃣ Pullback Levels

Shallow: $640–642

Medium: $635

Deep: $628 (critical Sea anchor zone).

7️⃣ Final View

Bias: Bearish short-term → Path remains toward $630 unless $645+

8️⃣ Essence (Philosophy Line)

“Macro still near the Mountain, but microframes are in Collapse. Pullbacks are rebalances, not rescues. Until gates reopen, bearish flow dominates.”

9️⃣ Disclaimer

⚠️ This analysis is shared for educational and research purposes only. It is not financial advice, trading advice, or investment recommendation. Market decisions are entirely your own responsibility.

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