Ugh, was still planning to be off but I had to crawl back on here because of these top talks. But going to keep it really brief:
Question?
Has SPY topped?
Answer:
With the utmost confidence, I have to say no.
Reason:
The chart above shows the current YTD vs the 3 month and 6 month high prob calculated targets along with the corresponding probability.
And since I am here already, might as well take a few minutes to tell you about our 3 and 6 month ranges.
3 month range:
This is the 3 month range. The probabilities displayed are based on a cumulative distribution density assessment. They are not based on technical probabilities.
6 month range:
This is the 6 month range. The probabilities displayed are based on a cumulative distribution density assessment. They are not based on technical probabilities.
You will notice that ATHs are appearing in the forecasts finally. Which is interesting.
You will also notice that none of these ranges permit us to go to a new low.
And you will also notice that despite no new low being forecasted, the probability generally rests with us seeing some more sustained pullback at some point later this year.
And that's it. But I know, more questions. So here is your little FAQ:
Q: What is the probability we exceed the low of the 3 month range?
A: 8%. The low of the range is 401. So an 8% probability we fall below 401 within the next 3 months.
Q: What is the probability we exceed the low of the 6 month range?
A: 6%. The low of the range is 383.64. So the probability we fall below 383 in the next 6 months is 6%.
That's it.
Closing notes:
I may be back posting next week. I have been working on some projects, a couple of Indicator projects. One is a really big project that involves Modern Portfolio theory, so really excited to get this finished. As well, other responsibilities, school, working, and trading, etc.
But we will see.
Thanks for reading, safe trades everyone!
Question?
Has SPY topped?
Answer:
With the utmost confidence, I have to say no.
Reason:
The chart above shows the current YTD vs the 3 month and 6 month high prob calculated targets along with the corresponding probability.
And since I am here already, might as well take a few minutes to tell you about our 3 and 6 month ranges.
3 month range:
This is the 3 month range. The probabilities displayed are based on a cumulative distribution density assessment. They are not based on technical probabilities.
6 month range:
This is the 6 month range. The probabilities displayed are based on a cumulative distribution density assessment. They are not based on technical probabilities.
You will notice that ATHs are appearing in the forecasts finally. Which is interesting.
You will also notice that none of these ranges permit us to go to a new low.
And you will also notice that despite no new low being forecasted, the probability generally rests with us seeing some more sustained pullback at some point later this year.
And that's it. But I know, more questions. So here is your little FAQ:
Q: What is the probability we exceed the low of the 3 month range?
A: 8%. The low of the range is 401. So an 8% probability we fall below 401 within the next 3 months.
Q: What is the probability we exceed the low of the 6 month range?
A: 6%. The low of the range is 383.64. So the probability we fall below 383 in the next 6 months is 6%.
That's it.
Closing notes:
I may be back posting next week. I have been working on some projects, a couple of Indicator projects. One is a really big project that involves Modern Portfolio theory, so really excited to get this finished. As well, other responsibilities, school, working, and trading, etc.
But we will see.
Thanks for reading, safe trades everyone!
Note
See? It didn't top.
Note
Looks like we are on track to take out the 6 month target this week:
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- Live Updates,
- Discord access,
- Access to my Proprietary Merlin Software,
- Access to premium indicators,
patreon.com/steversteves
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Get:
- Live Updates,
- Discord access,
- Access to my Proprietary Merlin Software,
- Access to premium indicators,
patreon.com/steversteves
- Live Updates,
- Discord access,
- Access to my Proprietary Merlin Software,
- Access to premium indicators,
patreon.com/steversteves
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.