I think this is a high probability trade .
SQQQ is giving us a wedge pop in a market that is in red trading mode as of todays close ( yesterdays close put us into green trading mode as we closed above QQQs 10 and 21 ema but this was lost today and we closed very bearishly with todays candle that acted as an engulfing candle of particular significance since QQQ is near its upper trendline on the bearish down trend channel and we see to be rejecting the upper trend line .
The engulfing candle in SQQQ's chart is taking out / eclipsing the bodies of 8 candles to the left , marked with arrows at top of candles but I would argue that you could count yesterdays candle in that to make it 9 candles , even though it never fully eclipsed yesterdays candle , we gapped up at open ( SQQQ ) so we can almost count it as a bullish engulfing candle for this too since the strength is clearly there.
Also the volume from todays move is very high .
Al Brooks , who I am a fan of , likes to think in probabilities and says "most randomized trades are around a 50% probability" but given the right conditions its possible to achieve up to an 80 % probability in rare circumstances, but 60% more common and easier for traders to find . So personally , given the power of the engulfing candle , the volume and the trendline with 3 major hits , I think this is very easily a 60- 65% probability trade to R1 at least . The market is in red trading mode so no regular longs but SQQQ is ok . Wedge pop is the signal . I suggest looking at QQQs chart too because I think it shows the upper TL in its downtrend channel better than the TL on SQQQ but it was too much to display here .
I took it near the close , final 10 min of day .
Entry - 41.66
PT 1 - 46.94 , 1R , sell 1/4 , stop up to half
PT 2 - 52.19 , sell 1/4
H WD after derisk - sell 1/4
D WD after derisk - sell remaining
SQQQ is giving us a wedge pop in a market that is in red trading mode as of todays close ( yesterdays close put us into green trading mode as we closed above QQQs 10 and 21 ema but this was lost today and we closed very bearishly with todays candle that acted as an engulfing candle of particular significance since QQQ is near its upper trendline on the bearish down trend channel and we see to be rejecting the upper trend line .
The engulfing candle in SQQQ's chart is taking out / eclipsing the bodies of 8 candles to the left , marked with arrows at top of candles but I would argue that you could count yesterdays candle in that to make it 9 candles , even though it never fully eclipsed yesterdays candle , we gapped up at open ( SQQQ ) so we can almost count it as a bullish engulfing candle for this too since the strength is clearly there.
Also the volume from todays move is very high .
Al Brooks , who I am a fan of , likes to think in probabilities and says "most randomized trades are around a 50% probability" but given the right conditions its possible to achieve up to an 80 % probability in rare circumstances, but 60% more common and easier for traders to find . So personally , given the power of the engulfing candle , the volume and the trendline with 3 major hits , I think this is very easily a 60- 65% probability trade to R1 at least . The market is in red trading mode so no regular longs but SQQQ is ok . Wedge pop is the signal . I suggest looking at QQQs chart too because I think it shows the upper TL in its downtrend channel better than the TL on SQQQ but it was too much to display here .
I took it near the close , final 10 min of day .
Entry - 41.66
PT 1 - 46.94 , 1R , sell 1/4 , stop up to half
PT 2 - 52.19 , sell 1/4
H WD after derisk - sell 1/4
D WD after derisk - sell remaining
Note
PT1 Hit , stop up ..Note
We had a wedge drop today on SQQQ which is right near BE per balance ,
We have not yet done the opposite , WPed on TQQQ though , will be intersting to see if this turns in to a bear trap or higher low ... I am pretty busy finishing up a job too so I am setting a stop under the LOD to sell balance if market sees a continuation up ... Also I will be ready for TQQQ entry too if everything lines up
Note
New stop 41.24 , which gives a bit of profit if trade continues against me .Trade closed: stop reached
艾力克~
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艾力克~
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.