Our opinion on the current state of SIBANYE-S(SSW)

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Sibanye (SSW) is a mining house that has been on a rapid acquisition trail, accumulating platinum and gold mines in South Africa and America. The company is now broadening its scope to include base metals and minerals, especially so-called "green" metals. The company is run by Neal Froneman, who is well-known in the mining industry for his toughness, expertise, and experience. Froneman has said that he intends to retire in about 2024/5 but plans to double the size of the company before he does. Sibanye is also considering moving into the base minerals used in motor vehicle batteries like vanadium, copper, nickel, and lithium.

On 1st June 2021, the company announced a share buy-back program to repurchase up to 5% of its issued shares. On 30th June 2022, the company announced its intention to increase its stake in Keliber, a Finnish lithium producer, to 80% at a cost of about R7.7bn. On 9th November 2023, the company announced that it is to acquire Reldan, a US-based metals recycler, for $211.5m. We believe that in time Sibanye will continue to make new all-time record highs due to superb strategic management. Thus, the current drop in the share price could be viewed as a buying opportunity. Froneman believes that Sibanye shares are undervalued, and we tend to agree with him, but everything will depend on the prices of the metals which he sells.

On 25th October 2023, the company announced that it had commenced section 189 consultations for the retrenchment of 4095 employees. On 6th November 2023, the company announced that it had made a five-year deal with AMCU at its Kroondal PGM operation for a minimum 6% per annum wage hike. On 21st November 2023, the company announced that it would raise $500m by issuing a convertible bond that will pay 4% to 4.5% until it can be converted in 2028. The news caused some shareholders to switch out of the shares, resulting in a 20% drop in the share price.

In its results for the year to 31st December 2023, the company reported revenue down 18% and a loss of R37.4bn. The CEO said, "We are confident that the PGM price weakness during 2023 does not signal a structural change in PGM fundamentals like that of the nickel market, but is more temporary in nature and we are beginning to see increasing signs which support a better demand outlook." On 11th April 2024, the company announced that it was commencing section 189 inquiries for the retrenchment of 3107 employees and around 900 contractors in its gold mines. On 3rd July 2024, Business Day reported that Sibanye had retrenched 11000 workers over 18 months.

Technically, the share has been in a downward trend since March 2022, mainly because of falling commodity prices. In an update on the three months to 31st March 2024, the company reported a 3% increase in 4E PGM production. The company said, "Sandouville nickel production increased by 42% and Nickel equivalent sustaining cost reduced by 36%. The Keliber lithium project is on budget and progressing according to schedule. The Reldan acquisition was successfully concluded with integration underway." We recommended waiting for it to break up through its downward trendline before investigating further. That upside break came on 2nd April 2024 at a price of 2230c. The share has subsequently moved up to 2290c and remains a volatile commodity producer.

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