Spain and the European Automobile Industry Under Pressure: China Tightens the Grip as Exports Sink
Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
The engine of the Spanish economy is starting to stall. The automotive industry, which represents 13% of national exports, is facing in 2025 a downturn driven by both external and internal factors: weaker demand across Europe and the rise of Chinese brands offering aggressively priced vehicles.
Exports Falling, Surplus at Lows
Between January and June, sector exports dropped 8.9% year-on-year to €25.66 billion. The trade surplus collapsed 55%, down to just €2.14 billion. Spain produced 111,601 fewer vehicles compared to the same period last year, reflecting weaker demand in Germany (–4.7%), France (–7.9%), and Italy (–3.6%).
Manufacturers warn that the pressure is becoming unsustainable and are calling for “strong measures” to safeguard the competitiveness of the country’s 18 car plants.
Europe: Mixed Results Among Giants
First-half sales figures paint a mixed picture for Europe’s automotive leaders. Volkswagen regained the top spot in the continent with 1.8 million units sold (+3%), while Stellantis slumped to 1.04 million (–9%). Renault, meanwhile, managed a 6% increase to 700,000 units, supported by the strong performance of SUVs and electric models.
In Spain, Stellantis (Vigo, Zaragoza, Madrid), Renault (Valladolid, Palencia), and Volkswagen/SEAT (Navarra, Martorell) plants concentrate nearly all production. Yet, not even the arrival of Chery—starting assembly at Barcelona’s Zona Franca with Ebro—managed to reverse the trend: export volumes dropped 10.8% to 1.04 million vehicles.
Chery and the Chinese Offensive
Chery’s arrival symbolizes a broader movement: Chinese carmakers, already selling massively in Europe, are now seeking to manufacture within the continent to avoid the tariffs imposed by the EU on imported EVs since October 2024. At the same time, Brussels is negotiating a minimum pricing system to ease downward pressure on European manufacturers.
Stock Market: Three Distinct Strategies
Financial markets reflect the industry’s fragmentation:
Stellantis (NYSE: STLA) trades around US$10, after a semester marked by falling revenues and margin pressure.
Renault (RNO.PA), at €33.5, offers one of the highest dividends in the sector (~6.5%). Analysts set its potential at around €47, implying 40% upside.
Volkswagen (VOW3.DE), at €102.5, maintains a defensive profile with a low P/E (~6x) and a dividend yield of 6%. Within the group, SEAT/CUPRA remains pivotal: revenues rose 2.4% in Q1, though tariff tensions weigh on models like the Tavascan, built in China.
Stellantis (Ticker AT: STLA)
Current trend: consolidating, with a long-term bearish outlook but a short-term upward correction since early August. Moving averages (50, 100, 200) remain bearish, though a bullish crossover between the 50 and 100-day averages seems imminent.
Mixed signals: In July, price crossed above the 20- and 50-day averages, with positive MACD and slightly above-average volume, suggesting a possible technical rebound. Key resistances at US$10.25–10.61; supports at US$9.89–9.53.
Recent indicators:
RSI at 58.81%, pointing to early overbought conditions.
MACD suggests upward momentum, though still below the histogram.
POC around €8.299, last week’s close at €8.646.
Strong supports at €7.133 and the recent low at €6.890.
Conclusion: Technicals indicate a balanced market with potential medium-term recovery if resistance at €9.812 and €11.488 is broken. For now, moving averages and oscillators advise caution.
Renault (Ticker AT: RNO)
Current trend: long-term bearish, short-term rebound forming a consolidation band between €31.13 (lows) and €35.59 (highs). A breakout above this could shift directionality.
Supports/Resistances: Supports at €30.87–31.13. Resistances at €35.59, POC at €39.40, followed by €40.36, €44.59, and February’s high at €52.90.
Recent indicators:
RSI at 46.90%, recovering from deep oversold territory.
MACD hints at upward momentum, though still below histogram.
POC at €39.40, well above current price.
Conclusion: Renault shows signs of technical recovery from oversold levels, but key ceilings remain. A move above €35–40 would be decisive, otherwise resistance could stall momentum.
Volkswagen (VOW3.DE)
Current trend: long-term neutral, forming a possible bullish pennant. Short-term outlook is positive, while medium to long term remains flat.
Supports/Resistances: Supports at €78.86–79.82. Resistances at €114.20, €120.65, and €127.85.
Recent indicators:
RSI at 68.67%, suggesting strong bullish momentum with extended overbought conditions.
MACD remains bullish, both signal and MACD above histogram in positive territory.
POC at €120.65, far above current price.
Conclusion: Volkswagen maintains short-term strength, but strong resistances and high volatility warrant caution, especially if it fails to surpass POC levels.
The Challenge: Sustaining a Strategic Sector
Spanish and European automotive face a decisive 2025: exports falling, trade surplus shrinking, and Chinese competition intensifying. With Stellantis still consolidating, Renault attempting a rebound, and Volkswagen showing limited strength, the sector’s survival hinges on institutional support, competitive electrification, and market diversification. Spain’s industrial and export engine risks losing traction without decisive adaptation.
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The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
The engine of the Spanish economy is starting to stall. The automotive industry, which represents 13% of national exports, is facing in 2025 a downturn driven by both external and internal factors: weaker demand across Europe and the rise of Chinese brands offering aggressively priced vehicles.
Exports Falling, Surplus at Lows
Between January and June, sector exports dropped 8.9% year-on-year to €25.66 billion. The trade surplus collapsed 55%, down to just €2.14 billion. Spain produced 111,601 fewer vehicles compared to the same period last year, reflecting weaker demand in Germany (–4.7%), France (–7.9%), and Italy (–3.6%).
Manufacturers warn that the pressure is becoming unsustainable and are calling for “strong measures” to safeguard the competitiveness of the country’s 18 car plants.
Europe: Mixed Results Among Giants
First-half sales figures paint a mixed picture for Europe’s automotive leaders. Volkswagen regained the top spot in the continent with 1.8 million units sold (+3%), while Stellantis slumped to 1.04 million (–9%). Renault, meanwhile, managed a 6% increase to 700,000 units, supported by the strong performance of SUVs and electric models.
In Spain, Stellantis (Vigo, Zaragoza, Madrid), Renault (Valladolid, Palencia), and Volkswagen/SEAT (Navarra, Martorell) plants concentrate nearly all production. Yet, not even the arrival of Chery—starting assembly at Barcelona’s Zona Franca with Ebro—managed to reverse the trend: export volumes dropped 10.8% to 1.04 million vehicles.
Chery and the Chinese Offensive
Chery’s arrival symbolizes a broader movement: Chinese carmakers, already selling massively in Europe, are now seeking to manufacture within the continent to avoid the tariffs imposed by the EU on imported EVs since October 2024. At the same time, Brussels is negotiating a minimum pricing system to ease downward pressure on European manufacturers.
Stock Market: Three Distinct Strategies
Financial markets reflect the industry’s fragmentation:
Stellantis (NYSE: STLA) trades around US$10, after a semester marked by falling revenues and margin pressure.
Renault (RNO.PA), at €33.5, offers one of the highest dividends in the sector (~6.5%). Analysts set its potential at around €47, implying 40% upside.
Volkswagen (VOW3.DE), at €102.5, maintains a defensive profile with a low P/E (~6x) and a dividend yield of 6%. Within the group, SEAT/CUPRA remains pivotal: revenues rose 2.4% in Q1, though tariff tensions weigh on models like the Tavascan, built in China.
Stellantis (Ticker AT: STLA)
Current trend: consolidating, with a long-term bearish outlook but a short-term upward correction since early August. Moving averages (50, 100, 200) remain bearish, though a bullish crossover between the 50 and 100-day averages seems imminent.
Mixed signals: In July, price crossed above the 20- and 50-day averages, with positive MACD and slightly above-average volume, suggesting a possible technical rebound. Key resistances at US$10.25–10.61; supports at US$9.89–9.53.
Recent indicators:
RSI at 58.81%, pointing to early overbought conditions.
MACD suggests upward momentum, though still below the histogram.
POC around €8.299, last week’s close at €8.646.
Strong supports at €7.133 and the recent low at €6.890.
Conclusion: Technicals indicate a balanced market with potential medium-term recovery if resistance at €9.812 and €11.488 is broken. For now, moving averages and oscillators advise caution.
Renault (Ticker AT: RNO)
Current trend: long-term bearish, short-term rebound forming a consolidation band between €31.13 (lows) and €35.59 (highs). A breakout above this could shift directionality.
Supports/Resistances: Supports at €30.87–31.13. Resistances at €35.59, POC at €39.40, followed by €40.36, €44.59, and February’s high at €52.90.
Recent indicators:
RSI at 46.90%, recovering from deep oversold territory.
MACD hints at upward momentum, though still below histogram.
POC at €39.40, well above current price.
Conclusion: Renault shows signs of technical recovery from oversold levels, but key ceilings remain. A move above €35–40 would be decisive, otherwise resistance could stall momentum.
Volkswagen (VOW3.DE)
Current trend: long-term neutral, forming a possible bullish pennant. Short-term outlook is positive, while medium to long term remains flat.
Supports/Resistances: Supports at €78.86–79.82. Resistances at €114.20, €120.65, and €127.85.
Recent indicators:
RSI at 68.67%, suggesting strong bullish momentum with extended overbought conditions.
MACD remains bullish, both signal and MACD above histogram in positive territory.
POC at €120.65, far above current price.
Conclusion: Volkswagen maintains short-term strength, but strong resistances and high volatility warrant caution, especially if it fails to surpass POC levels.
The Challenge: Sustaining a Strategic Sector
Spanish and European automotive face a decisive 2025: exports falling, trade surplus shrinking, and Chinese competition intensifying. With Stellantis still consolidating, Renault attempting a rebound, and Volkswagen showing limited strength, the sector’s survival hinges on institutional support, competitive electrification, and market diversification. Spain’s industrial and export engine risks losing traction without decisive adaptation.
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.