SUI‑USDT – Exhaustion or Extension?

1. Why this zone matters

Price has reached the 0.886 Fib retrace of the May -> Jun swing.
Momentum is fading: 1‑hour RSI peaked lower (60 vs. 69 on the prior swing).
OBV and hourly volume both rolling over

2. Order‑flow snapshot (since 14 Jul 00:00 UTC)

Spot CVD → up Retail/FIAT buyers still lifting offers.
Perp CVD → down Aggressive shorts absorbing that demand.
Aggregated OI → up, now stalling Fresh longs trapped; beginning to unwind.
Interpretation: spot bids are being offset by short perps, and the build‑up in leverage is leaking—classic exhaustion.

3. Historical stats to know

The combo Spot CVD ↑ + Perp CVD ↓ + OI roll‑over + RSI bear‑div has produced a ≥ 1 % downside move within 30 minutes about 65 % of the time on tier‑1 alts (Jan 2023 – Apr 2025 sample).

4. Checklist before I short

M5 structure break (lower‑high plus close below the last M5 swing low).
Need a 1H candle CLOSE below the yellow ascending trendline!
Perp CVD flips ≤ 0 and OI prints two consecutive down‑ticks.
TPO sell tail with at least 3 single prints right at the high.

If all three fire → short is live. Otherwise, stand aside.

Bottom line
Momentum is fading; spot buying is being soaked up by stealth perp shorts, and leverage is already leaking out. Wait for the checklist—then look for a mean‑reversion move lower.

And remember: Reaction beats prediction.

Note

This is not financial advice.

Note

This is not financial advice.

Trade active

I had closed my position with very small loss when we broke out of 16.60 -

We can look for a re-enter here

beware though - market might blast higher. Use tight stops here.

Note

Last note is for the other LINKUSDT setup.

Alireza_ITS

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.

Alireza_ITS