Short

Updated

Swipe (SXP) vs USD - to $0.60 cents

At 60 cents price action is still 240% up from March lows! Consider that before dismissing the idea - we're in the midst of a crazy bubble that's just starting to burst. RSI resistance is confirmed on no less than 3 occasions, it is unlikely to be broken until mid-September.

The above 8hr chart head & shoulders breakout is confirmed by today's price action. The breakout extension suggests a target of 60 cents, which would take price action to the 3-day support level on the chart below. Furthermore the weekly chart Stochastic RSI just crossed down 80 with last week's close. Never ignore weekly cross downs, they're 99% of the time bearish.

Tip for the day - Emotion is a money killer!

3-day chart

weekly chart - Stochastic RSI crosses down 80 - very bearish! (orange circle)

Note

Should $3.30 be broken and then shown as support (2 charts above) then expect a run to $4. Guessing where the top is, is not something I do.

I remain bearish overall, especially after a 3000% run from the bottom. The risk / reward ratio is unacceptable now. New highs are a cashing out opportunity.

Note

$3.30 rejected - yesterday’s daily candle tells us price action closed lower than it opened - for now bears have control.

Circled in orange (below) is where the 10-day moving average crosses down the 21-day moving average. Historically speaking nothing ever good happens for the bulls (compare below with above):

Lastly the Bitcoin chart, SXP price action just closed under the 21-day moving average with previous RSI support trend line now confirmed as resistance.

Note

Correction to the above moving averages chart:

The 10-day moving average did not cross down the 21-day, looks like it did, but no, it has not done so.

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Failed support on uptrend on the 8hr - watch $2.62, fall under this would be a break of market structure and a trend change opening the door to $2.

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Confirmation of broken market structure on the 8hr.

Should $2.34 fail, so will $2 and price action goes straight to $1.86

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Bulls just through in towel - upward trend line collapses. Bears seem hungry, and there's plenty to eat ;-)

Note

Market is changing to quickly for me to update the chart.

$1.45 next support level, $2 is toast.

Trade active

The psychology of price action is fascinating. Bulls defined $2 with what remaining strength they have until it is exhausted, then a mighty collapse should follow. Never understand who buys into a falling knife.. The emotions are all on display today.

Note

$2 mark did not hold up so long, expected the bulls to put up more fight. I now don't expect much support at $1.45 as mentioned above. $1.30 is the next support level of significance, after which it is a clear run to 60 cents.

Be careful, if 60 cents is not guaranteed to be the end station. If it fails, then it is straight run to 16 cents where we were in March.

Note

Graphs are the same, published twice by mistake,

Note

Hidden bearish divergence - Time to be extra careful

Hidden bearish divergence is not so obvious to a normal divergence, however it is just as powerful when it plays out, if not more so.

Hidden bearish divergence is defined as lower highs in price action whilst the oscillators make higher highs.

Trade active

Hidden divergence confirmed.

Note

Head and shoulders breakout on the 1-day chart. Wait until the price action resistance trend line (orange) becomes support before going long. Could be a couple of months away.

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Not long to go until 60 cents - patience

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$2.23 to $2.26 is the next 'go short' sweet spot.

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Not certain the bulls have the puff to push price action higher, they might have become exhausted already.

Time to be careful. Notice price action has rallied to resistance?

Note

Above channel confirms resistance remain intact. Back down to $1.30

Note

$1.30 touched. Now we wait and see if the bulls can hold it as support.

If support fails (we may test it as resistance) we can expect a fall straight to target, 60 cents.

Note

Psychology behind price action in the last 48 hours was all on display. Buyers defended the $1.30 mark pouring more money in, price went up until buyers stopped. They repeated once more at $1.30 pushing price up and then they became exhausted. Price collapsed. Buyers have now become long terms bag holders.

You see this behaviour across so many asset classes, not just crypto. Recognising it is important, especially at market bottoms when the opposite happens, it is a terrific leading indicator.

Note

Failed support on the 21-week (blue line), we now have no strong support until 60 cents. A bounce around $1.11 should be expected. Buyers may come in before we see capitulation.

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Bounce off $1.11 as expected. If the pattern holds, we can now we can expect sub <$1 prices with the next move. Target around $0.93

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Be careful - next 7 days look very bearish:

1) Bollinger bands squeezing with price action in the bearish half of band indicating a big move is coming.

2) MFI resistance trend line is confirmed indicating resistance will remain in play for the next 7 days.

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Be very careful at this moment - a powerful move is about to occur, which direction? Who knows - but it will be powerful.

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On closer inspection on the daily chart price action yesterday closed under the 200-day moving average. Very bearish.

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Downward symmetrical triangle recently broke to the downside confirming the next stage to 60 cents. A word of warning is 60 cents does not hold, the next support level is in single digits.

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Current rally will likely find resistance at $1.36 having broken the downward resistance channel (orange line). Then it is likely to be tested as support at some point going forward taking us to target.

Note

Sorry folks... wrong chart was used above... and now cannot delete.

The Kucoin chart was telling a far different story with historical resistance currently being tested. Failure to pass $1.05 is likey to be the make or break point.

Trade active

Note

Final leg down to 60 cents looks to be in progress as the 4-day chart below indicates previous support has failed - could call target reached, but that extra 14 cents would void the idea for some ;)

Trade closed: target reached

Kaboom!

Note

SXP is becoming strongly overbought on the daily since the buy signal printed.

Caution advised.

without_worries

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Allow 3-6 months on ideas. Not investment advice. DYOR

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without_worries

BTC
bc1q2eckdzh0q8vsd7swcc8et6ze7s99khhxyl7zwy

Weblink: patreon.com/withoutworries

Allow 3-6 months on ideas. Not investment advice. DYOR

Also on: