🌺Conclusion🌺
Fair value: ₹1,370/share (DCF, FCFF).
Upside vs ~₹676: ~+100%.
Why: 12% growth, margin normalization to 13%, capex glide to 6%, revenue‑weighted global ERP yielding WACC ~11.1%, terminal growth 4.3%.
💁🏻DCF (FCFF) Highlights🌸
Framework: 5-year FCFF + Gordon terminal.
FCFF ramp (₹Cr): 6,541; 20,072; 34,252; 38,362; 42,965.
Assumptions: EBITDA 11.5%→13.0%; D&A ~5.3% of revenue; capex 9.0%→7.5%→6.0%; ΔWC base 0; tax ~18.9%.
Bridge: PV(FCFF) ~₹0.96–0.98L Cr; PV(Terminal) ~₹4.05–4.15L Cr; EV ~₹5.01–5.13L Cr; less net auto debt ₹13,500Cr; equity ~₹4.88–4.99L Cr; per share ₹1,360–₹1,380.
🧐Other Valuation Lenses 🌸
JLR: EV/Sales ~0.7–0.9x or EV/EBITDA on normalized 10–12% margins (discount to luxury peers).
India CV: EV/EBITDA ~6.0–7.5x mid‑cycle.
India PV/EV: EV/EBITDA ~10–12x normalized; use EV/Sales when EBIT soft.
🤔Scenarios (Per‑Share)🤔
Best (EBITDA 13.5–14.0%, capex faster to 6%): ₹1,520–₹1,620.
Base (EBITDA 13.0%): ₹1,360–₹1,380 (headline ₹1,370).
Worst (EBITDA 10.0–11.5%, capex slower to 7%): ₹1,180–₹1,280.
⭐Key Drivers⭐
JLR premium mix (Range Rover/Defender), tariff/FX normalization, China retail.
India PV discounting vs ASP/mix; EV unit economics scale-up.
CV cycle durability; pricing discipline.
Capex cadence and working capital behavior driving cash conversion.
✨Key Numbers✨
WACC ~11.1% (revenue‑weighted ERP, β≈1.30).
Terminal growth 4.3%.
Shares ~3.68B; net automotive debt ₹13,500Cr.
:it's not buy/sell recommendation this report is for info
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.