The market is trying to have its cake and eat it too....
The market priced in a rate cut for next year which is why long term bonds rallied recently. Meanwhile they pumped stocks because earnings were good. Can't have it both ways, either we're headed for a recession and stocks should go down or we're not and TLT needs to head down.
TLT and the market heading up at the same time really doesn't make sense based on what the Fed is doing. Probably just money flowing out of commodity trading which now appears to be a dead play. I said this a couple of months ago, if they keep pumping oil prices then the Fed will keep raising rates so it's done.
Anyways, chart pattern is similar to the December top, made some money overnight with TLT puts, I figured employment numbers would be good.
The market priced in a rate cut for next year which is why long term bonds rallied recently. Meanwhile they pumped stocks because earnings were good. Can't have it both ways, either we're headed for a recession and stocks should go down or we're not and TLT needs to head down.
TLT and the market heading up at the same time really doesn't make sense based on what the Fed is doing. Probably just money flowing out of commodity trading which now appears to be a dead play. I said this a couple of months ago, if they keep pumping oil prices then the Fed will keep raising rates so it's done.
Anyways, chart pattern is similar to the December top, made some money overnight with TLT puts, I figured employment numbers would be good.
Note
CPI numbers come out Wed premarket. Not sure how the market reacts to that since it will be better than last month but maybe not good enough to keep the Fed from going another .5 or .75 in SeptemberNote
At least this acted normally today, went down when the market went up
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.