Here’s an important update on TOTAL3, reflecting the recent market dynamics and our analysis:
📉Recent Movement:
- After the dip of 7 June, TOTAL3 has returned to the center of its 9-week-long consolidation range (visible on the weekly time frame in the inset of the attached chart).
- Simultaneously, we observe a reversion to the center of the 50-day and 100-day moving averages on the daily time frame (main chart volume), alongside a rejection from the monthly R3 level.
🔍 Current Situation:
🔮We foresee two primary scenarios:
📈 Scenario 1: Consolidation and Attempted Breakout (Green Scenario)
- TOTAL3 consolidates around the current mark, fluctuating within a +/- 2-3% range, preparing for a second attempt at an upward breakout. This is the most favorable scenario.
📉Scenario 2: Reaction to US #CPI Data (Red Scenario)
- With the US CPI data release on Wednesday, stronger-than-expected results could lead to a pullback towards the monthly S3 level (approximately -5% across TOTAL3), followed by a swift rebound. In case of a very strong CPI report, a correction to the lower boundary of the red channel (-8%) with an even quicker recovery is possible.
- Both scenarios indicate long positions, differing only in the extent of corrections.
🚨 Key Levels:
- It’s crucial not to break and settle below the May 15th low, as this would invalidate the long structure, potentially leading to a total -12% to -26% drop in TOTAL3.
- However, given the robust ETF inflows and the anticipated launch of the spot Ethereum ETF, such a bearish scenario seems unlikely. Additionally, with the ECB’s recent rate cut, we might expect the Federal Reserve to follow suit within the next 2-6 months, usually lagging behind ECB to avoid destabilizing the currency market.
Stay vigilant and adjust your strategies accordingly.
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Feel free to share your thoughts or ask questions in the comments!
📉Recent Movement:
- After the dip of 7 June, TOTAL3 has returned to the center of its 9-week-long consolidation range (visible on the weekly time frame in the inset of the attached chart).
- Simultaneously, we observe a reversion to the center of the 50-day and 100-day moving averages on the daily time frame (main chart volume), alongside a rejection from the monthly R3 level.
🔍 Current Situation:
🔮We foresee two primary scenarios:
📈 Scenario 1: Consolidation and Attempted Breakout (Green Scenario)
- TOTAL3 consolidates around the current mark, fluctuating within a +/- 2-3% range, preparing for a second attempt at an upward breakout. This is the most favorable scenario.
📉Scenario 2: Reaction to US #CPI Data (Red Scenario)
- With the US CPI data release on Wednesday, stronger-than-expected results could lead to a pullback towards the monthly S3 level (approximately -5% across TOTAL3), followed by a swift rebound. In case of a very strong CPI report, a correction to the lower boundary of the red channel (-8%) with an even quicker recovery is possible.
- Both scenarios indicate long positions, differing only in the extent of corrections.
🚨 Key Levels:
- It’s crucial not to break and settle below the May 15th low, as this would invalidate the long structure, potentially leading to a total -12% to -26% drop in TOTAL3.
- However, given the robust ETF inflows and the anticipated launch of the spot Ethereum ETF, such a bearish scenario seems unlikely. Additionally, with the ECB’s recent rate cut, we might expect the Federal Reserve to follow suit within the next 2-6 months, usually lagging behind ECB to avoid destabilizing the currency market.
Stay vigilant and adjust your strategies accordingly.
---
Feel free to share your thoughts or ask questions in the comments!
Trade closed: stop reached
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.