Our opinion on the current state of TRELLIDOR(TRL)

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Trellidor (TRL) has been a manufacturer of barrier security products, blinds, and security shutters since 1976. The company operates through two main divisions: the Trellidor business, which focuses on security barriers, and the Taylor business, which produces security and decorative blinds. In addition, Taylor imports and distributes cornicing and skirting. Trellidor has 70 franchise outlets across South Africa and a strong, well-recognized brand. It also has a presence in 24 countries, 17 of which are in Africa.

As a company closely tied to the construction and home improvement industry, Trellidor’s performance is affected by the broader economic environment. However, it is well-managed, with a strong balance sheet. It stands to benefit from any improvement in the economy and has already gained from the work-from-home trend and low interest rates. The company has been conducting share buybacks, which has helped support its share price.

In its results for the six months ending 31st December 2023, Trellidor reported a 6.9% increase in revenue but a 16.1% decrease in headline earnings per share (HEPS). The decline was attributed to "declining revenue in the domestic market; and increased opening debt levels as at 30 June 2023, at higher interest rates."

In a trading statement for the year ending 30th June 2024, the company estimated that HEPS would be between 35.68c and 36.52c, compared to 4.2c in the previous year. This significant improvement is largely due to strong performance from the UK division, which offset weak demand in South Africa.

While Trellidor is a relatively thinly traded share, with around R52,000 worth of shares changing hands daily, its recent upward movement suggests it may be attracting some institutional interest. Security remains a priority for South Africans, which gives the company a steady demand base. However, the low trading volume makes it a riskier investment.

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