TSLA Bearish Breakdown in Progress – $322 or Bust? Monday Puts On Watch 🔻
🧠 GEX-Based Options Sentiment:
Tesla is currently trading right at a critical GEX flip zone. The $330 level used to be gamma support but has now broken, leaving TSLA vulnerable to a drop toward the high-risk gamma pocket between $320–$310.
The Highest positive GEX zone was stacked near $330–$340, but that structure has failed. The gamma walls above—like $347.5 and $350—now serve as resistance, especially with no strong call flow to support a squeeze.
The downside gamma structure is open. $310 is a soft magnet, but $300 is where the largest negative GEX sits, along with the 2nd and 3rd Put Walls. If TSLA continues slipping, a drop into the $300 zone could be swift.
Implied Volatility Rank is at 25.2, with IVX above 68 — meaning options are expensive, so spreads are safer than naked calls or puts. Flow is still 8% call-heavy, but that can flip hard if Monday starts red.
🔧 Options Trade Setup (for Monday–Wednesday):
Bearish Scenario (favored setup): If TSLA opens weak or rejects $325–$327.50 area again, consider buying a PUT debit spread, such as 322p/310p or 320p/300p (July 3 expiry). Target zone: $312, then $300 gamma flush. Stop: reclaim of $331 with bullish momentum.
Bullish Scenario (lower probability): If TSLA reclaims $330 and breaks trendline toward $335, consider a CALL debit spread like 335c/345c (Jul 3). Target zone: $345–$350. Cut if it falls back under $327.50.
📉 Intraday Technical Breakdown (1H Chart):
The price has confirmed a CHoCH + BOS combo, rejecting from supply and pushing below the rising trendline. Friday’s recovery attempt stalled right under that broken structure, and sellers took over late day.
The 1H chart is forming a bearish descending channel, with price currently trying to bounce off short-term demand, but failing to reclaim the key mid-zone.
This current setup favors continuation lower unless bulls can pull off a breakout early Monday. Otherwise, the path of least resistance is down.
📌 Key Levels to Watch:
$330.00 – Former GEX support, now resistance $331.10 – Trendline and bearish trigger flip $322.00 – Key support line (last defended Friday) $320.00 – Gamma pivot zone $310.00 – GEX magnet and low-volume shelf $300.00 – Highest negative GEX and major PUT support zone $345.25 – Upper trendline + prior supply rejection
✅ Thoughts and Monday Game Plan:
TSLA is sitting on the edge of a breakdown. The gamma structure supports further downside as long as price stays below $330. Watch for early rejection at $325–$327.50 to initiate puts.
If bulls manage to gap and reclaim above $331, reassess for a reversal setup — but for now, structure, volume, and GEX are all pointing down.
This is a reactive trade — wait for early confirmation on Monday and ride the wave, especially if SPY opens weak.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always trade with proper risk management and do your own due diligence.
🧠 GEX-Based Options Sentiment:
Tesla is currently trading right at a critical GEX flip zone. The $330 level used to be gamma support but has now broken, leaving TSLA vulnerable to a drop toward the high-risk gamma pocket between $320–$310.
The Highest positive GEX zone was stacked near $330–$340, but that structure has failed. The gamma walls above—like $347.5 and $350—now serve as resistance, especially with no strong call flow to support a squeeze.
The downside gamma structure is open. $310 is a soft magnet, but $300 is where the largest negative GEX sits, along with the 2nd and 3rd Put Walls. If TSLA continues slipping, a drop into the $300 zone could be swift.
Implied Volatility Rank is at 25.2, with IVX above 68 — meaning options are expensive, so spreads are safer than naked calls or puts. Flow is still 8% call-heavy, but that can flip hard if Monday starts red.
🔧 Options Trade Setup (for Monday–Wednesday):
Bearish Scenario (favored setup): If TSLA opens weak or rejects $325–$327.50 area again, consider buying a PUT debit spread, such as 322p/310p or 320p/300p (July 3 expiry). Target zone: $312, then $300 gamma flush. Stop: reclaim of $331 with bullish momentum.
Bullish Scenario (lower probability): If TSLA reclaims $330 and breaks trendline toward $335, consider a CALL debit spread like 335c/345c (Jul 3). Target zone: $345–$350. Cut if it falls back under $327.50.
📉 Intraday Technical Breakdown (1H Chart):
The price has confirmed a CHoCH + BOS combo, rejecting from supply and pushing below the rising trendline. Friday’s recovery attempt stalled right under that broken structure, and sellers took over late day.
The 1H chart is forming a bearish descending channel, with price currently trying to bounce off short-term demand, but failing to reclaim the key mid-zone.
This current setup favors continuation lower unless bulls can pull off a breakout early Monday. Otherwise, the path of least resistance is down.
📌 Key Levels to Watch:
$330.00 – Former GEX support, now resistance $331.10 – Trendline and bearish trigger flip $322.00 – Key support line (last defended Friday) $320.00 – Gamma pivot zone $310.00 – GEX magnet and low-volume shelf $300.00 – Highest negative GEX and major PUT support zone $345.25 – Upper trendline + prior supply rejection
✅ Thoughts and Monday Game Plan:
TSLA is sitting on the edge of a breakdown. The gamma structure supports further downside as long as price stays below $330. Watch for early rejection at $325–$327.50 to initiate puts.
If bulls manage to gap and reclaim above $331, reassess for a reversal setup — but for now, structure, volume, and GEX are all pointing down.
This is a reactive trade — wait for early confirmation on Monday and ride the wave, especially if SPY opens weak.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always trade with proper risk management and do your own due diligence.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.