⚡Market Structure & Price Action:
TSLA has shown a breakdown from its recent consolidation following a Break of Structure (BOS) and two Change of Character (CHoCH) signals. Price is now compressing downward in a falling wedge toward a key support zone around $260, suggesting a potential reversal or continuation setup.
* Bearish order block from the $290–$300 zone remains unchallenged.
* Current price action is hovering right at a support level with small-bodied candles, indicating indecision.
GEX & Options Flow Insights:
* IVR: 37.8
* IVx avg: 22.6
* Put Positioning: 71% (very defensive positioning by institutions)
* GEX: 🔴🔴🔴 (Strong bearish gamma exposure)
🧨 Highest negative GEX zone and Put support are stacking around $554–$550, acting as a gamma magnet and potential short-term floor if selling pressure accelerates.
Key Levels to Watch:
* Support Zones:
* $260.01 (current bid zone)
* $249.89
* $230 (lower wedge support)
* Resistance Zones:
* $275 (gap fill resistance)
* $291.83 (strong supply + BOS origin)
* $304.50 (major swing resistance)
Indicator Insights:
* MACD: Bullish crossover forming but lacking strong momentum
* Stoch RSI: Oversold territory, curling upward, hinting a potential short-term bounce
* Volume: Increasing on red candles, showing heavy sell pressure dominance recently
Scenarios:
🔼 Bullish Play:
* Entry: Above $264.50
* Target 1: $275
* Target 2: $291
* Stop-loss: Below $255 Confirmation needed via bullish CHoCH and break above descending wedge.
🔽 Bearish Play:
* Entry: Below $258 breakdown of wedge
* Target 1: $249
* Target 2: $230
* Stop-loss: Above $267 Watch for continuation if macro weakness persists and options flow remains bearish.
GEX Outlook Summary:
TSLA is entering a low-liquidity pocket with strong bearish gamma exposure. High IVR and heavy put concentration suggest institutional hedging, increasing the chance of a further breakdown unless buyers show up at key reversal zones.
Conclusion:
TSLA is at a make-or-break zone. If bulls can reclaim $265+, we may see a relief bounce. However, bearish options pressure and gamma positioning suggest the path of least resistance could still be down, especially toward $250.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk wisely.
TSLA has shown a breakdown from its recent consolidation following a Break of Structure (BOS) and two Change of Character (CHoCH) signals. Price is now compressing downward in a falling wedge toward a key support zone around $260, suggesting a potential reversal or continuation setup.
* Bearish order block from the $290–$300 zone remains unchallenged.
* Current price action is hovering right at a support level with small-bodied candles, indicating indecision.
GEX & Options Flow Insights:
* IVR: 37.8
* IVx avg: 22.6
* Put Positioning: 71% (very defensive positioning by institutions)
* GEX: 🔴🔴🔴 (Strong bearish gamma exposure)
🧨 Highest negative GEX zone and Put support are stacking around $554–$550, acting as a gamma magnet and potential short-term floor if selling pressure accelerates.
Key Levels to Watch:
* Support Zones:
* $260.01 (current bid zone)
* $249.89
* $230 (lower wedge support)
* Resistance Zones:
* $275 (gap fill resistance)
* $291.83 (strong supply + BOS origin)
* $304.50 (major swing resistance)
Indicator Insights:
* MACD: Bullish crossover forming but lacking strong momentum
* Stoch RSI: Oversold territory, curling upward, hinting a potential short-term bounce
* Volume: Increasing on red candles, showing heavy sell pressure dominance recently
Scenarios:
🔼 Bullish Play:
* Entry: Above $264.50
* Target 1: $275
* Target 2: $291
* Stop-loss: Below $255 Confirmation needed via bullish CHoCH and break above descending wedge.
🔽 Bearish Play:
* Entry: Below $258 breakdown of wedge
* Target 1: $249
* Target 2: $230
* Stop-loss: Above $267 Watch for continuation if macro weakness persists and options flow remains bearish.
GEX Outlook Summary:
TSLA is entering a low-liquidity pocket with strong bearish gamma exposure. High IVR and heavy put concentration suggest institutional hedging, increasing the chance of a further breakdown unless buyers show up at key reversal zones.
Conclusion:
TSLA is at a make-or-break zone. If bulls can reclaim $265+, we may see a relief bounce. However, bearish options pressure and gamma positioning suggest the path of least resistance could still be down, especially toward $250.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk wisely.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.