 $TV | Direction: Short/Bearish | Macro | (June 23, 2025)

  | Direction: Short/Bearish | Key Reason: Macro & Tech Disruption | (June 23, 2025)

1️⃣ Insight Summary
Cable TV legacy player is struggling—revenue up modestly but wide losses, high debt, and rising competition from streaming platforms suggest it’s a fading business. The technical setup supports a decline toward the mid-$3s.

2️⃣ Trade Parameters
Bias: Short or cautious long (if playing oversold, which is risky)
Entry: Near $7.97 (recent bounce)
Stop Loss: Above $10.00, ideally around $11–12 based on structure
Take Profit 1: $3.21 (50% retracement target)
Take Profit 2 / Hold Zone: Down toward the $0.53 level, where price structure may find long-term support

3️⃣ Key Notes
✅ Historical backbone – Founded mid-century, has operated cable and satellite services for decades.
❌ Structural decline – Cable subscriber base shrinking rapidly as audiences shift to streaming (YouTube, TikTok, Instagram).
❌ Weak fundamentals – Market cap ~ $1B; negative earnings (–$500M); high debt ($5B); free cash flow ~ $80M—not enough to offset liabilities.
✅ Signs of improvement – Debt margin slightly easing, FCF edge marginally growing, and revenues up from ~$400M to ~$500M since 2015—yet still minimal.
❌ Outlook dim – The business is shrinking faster than turnaround efforts. Any bounce is likely dead money unless a major strategic shift occurs.

4️⃣ Follow‑up Note
Monitor sentiment and streaming adoption trends. If fails to hold above $10–11 resistance, the decline toward $3.21 and possibly $0.53 remains on the table. A sustained rebound above mid-$10s would invalidate the bearish thesis.

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