Short

Shale Producers Can’t Survive This Drop

Brent Crude Oil — Wave C Still in Progress

Main Idea
I expect Brent to retest the 58.37 low in the coming months as part of a corrective Wave C in a zigzag formation.

Technical Outlook
Price action remains bearish, with the market trading below key resistance.
Below, there are areas of interest in the form of imbalances (FVGs) that may be filled.

Two possible wave structures:
Contracting diagonal → currently in wave 3.

Expanding diagonal → in the final wave 5.

Both scenarios imply further downside.

Fundamentals
Demand remains stable → no expectation of a dramatic collapse.
Inflation and fiat debasement continue to support prices.

Shale Factor
US shale production costs:
top-tier projects (Permian Basin) — $35–45/bbl,
less efficient/new wells — $50–55+.
Below $45–50, the industry turns unprofitable → drilling cuts and bankruptcies.
For Trump’s administration, it’s critical to keep oil low but not too low: cheap fuel supports voters, but extremely low prices would hurt domestic producers.

Conclusion
The base scenario points to further decline with a target at 58.37 and filling imbalances below.
However, a dramatic collapse below shale production costs is unlikely — this factor creates a natural “floor” for oil prices.

shakatrade1_618

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shakatrade1_618

Join the community:
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